Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 5

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)


	Melilla		Xerez CD

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.7	2.75
	2.52	2.68	2.92
	2.81	2.7	2.9
	2.57	2.82	2.91
	2.52	2.72	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.8)	2.72 ↓ (3)	2.87 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
35%

Draw
33.3%

Xerez CD
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

30.8%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

29.9%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Xerez CD could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Melilla - Xerez CD Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Melilla (1.92) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Melilla (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 1 - 0, Mohamed A. ⚽,
89', 1 - 1, Castillo M. ⚽,

Preview

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Melilla won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Melilla won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Melilla - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.99%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
28.09.25	La Unión - Melilla	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Melilla - Minera	2:2 ✺
14.09.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Melilla	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Minera - Melilla	3:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
07.09.25	Melilla - UCAM Murcia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTLLW
- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
28.09.25	Xerez CD - Estepona	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Águilas - Xerez CD	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Xerez CD - Antoniano	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Unión Molinense - Xerez CD	2:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
06.09.25	Puente Genil - Xerez CD	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
07.08.24	Melilla - Xerez CD	1:2

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