Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Mensajero		Lanzarote

	1	X	2
	2.06	3.14	3.36
	2.11	3.17	3.36
	2.1	2.9	3.3
	2.06	3.13	3.38
	2.14	3	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (2.09)	3.07 ↑ (3.05)	3.35 ↓ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mensajero
43.3%

Draw
29.6%

Lanzarote
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

29.7%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

29.1%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mensajero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Lanzarote has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mensajero than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanzarote than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Mensajero - Lanzarote Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Grande D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
66', 2 - 0, Nieto V. ⚽,
72', 3 - 0, Grande D. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 12 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mensajero won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lanzarote may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mensajero will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mensajero won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mensajero won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mensajero	4	3	0	1	4:2	2	9
10	Lanzarote	4	1	3	0	5:4	1	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mensajero
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
25.01.26	Mensajero - Tenerife C	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	San Bartolomé - Mensajero	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Mensajero - Unión Sur Yaiza	3:0 ✺
10.01.26	UD San Fernando - Mensajero	4:0 ✺
04.01.26	Mensajero - Arucas	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TTWLW
- UD Lanzarote
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
17.01.26	Tenerife C - Lanzarote	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	UD San Fernando - Lanzarote	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Real Unión - Lanzarote	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Lanzarote - San Bartolomé	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Lanzarote - Tamaraceite	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
21.09.25	Lanzarote - Mensajero	4:1
04.05.25	Mensajero - Lanzarote	2:1
22.12.24	Lanzarote - Mensajero	2:0
12.02.23	Lanzarote - Mensajero	1:1
06.12.22	Mensajero - Lanzarote	2:1
29.12.18	Mensajero - Lanzarote	3:0

Mensajero - Lanzarote: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide