Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 8

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: OSC Metalist (Kharkiv)


	Metalist Kharkiv		Livyi Bereh Kyiv

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.22
	2.20	3.43	2.89	Watch
	3.14	3.25	2.26
	3.15	3.2	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.13)	3.27 ↑ (3.2)	2.38 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metalist Kharkiv
32.4%

Draw
28.5%

Livyi Bereh Kyiv
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

28.4%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

27.4%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metalist Kharkiv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Metalist Kharkiv's form might have worsened.

Livyi Bereh Kyiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Livyi Bereh Kyiv's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metalist Kharkiv than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Metalist Kharkiv, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livyi Bereh Kyiv than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Livyi Bereh Kyiv, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Metalist Kharkiv - Livyi Bereh Kyiv Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Rybak V. (C) 10. Bagachanskyi M. 24. Fedoriv V. 27. Isaenko Y. 19. Kaydalov D. 7. Lutsiv P. 2. Mizyuk O. 5. Pidruchnyi D. 31. Porokh B. 6. Teplyakov D. 11. Tsvirenko O.	12. Zhmurko R. (G) 25. Kosovskyi S. 52. Kryvoruchko O. 10. Riznyk A. 5. Samar V. (C) 7. Shastal D. 6. Sidnney 2. Sokolov O. 96. Synytsya O. 17. Vorobchak N. 97. Yakymiv A.
Substitutes
21. Goryainov O. 39. Gryshchenko I. 9. Lutsiv V. 98. Orikhovskyi M. 38. Palyanychka K. 35. Pletnyov P. (G) 48. Prymak D. 32. Shakhmayev M. 30. Shapovalov I. 33. Sherstyuk Y. 40. Shevchenko M. 41. Smatko A. (G)	27. Astakhov E. 44. Banada E. 90. Bonsu N. 8. Diego Henrique 37. Geresh R. 9. Gunichev Y. 1. Mekhaniv M. (G) 22. Tishchenko V. 29. Wendell

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Tsvirenko O. ↓, Lutsiv V. ↑,
64', Porokh B. ↓, Orikhovskyi M. ↑,
67', Lutsiv V. 🟨,
67', Samar V. 🟨,
74', Riznyk A. ↓, Gunichev Y. ↑,
74', Vorobchak N. ↓, Wendell ↑,
75', Kryvoruchko O. 🟨,
79', Isaenko Y. ↓, Shakhmayev M. ↑,
81', Synytsya O. ↓, Diego Henrique ↑,
88', Bagachanskyi M. 🟨,
90', 0 - 1, Diego Henrique ⚽,
90+1', Teplyakov D. ↓, Sherstyuk Y. ↑,
90+3', Shastal D. ↓, Astakhov E. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Persha Liga (Relegation) and 7).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Livyi Bereh has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Metalist Kharkiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
25.09.25	Metalurh Zaporizhya - Metalist Kharkiv	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
17.09.25	Metalist Kharkiv - LNZ Cherkasy	0:2 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
13.09.25	Metalist Kharkiv - Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Viktoriya Sumy - Metalist Kharkiv	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Metalist Kharkiv - Probiy Horodenka	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLT
- Livyi Bereh Kyiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
22.09.25	Livyi Bereh Kyiv - Bukovyna Chernivtsi	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
17.09.25	Livyi Bereh Kyiv - Viktoriya Sumy	0:1 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
11.09.25	Feniks-Mariupol - Livyi Bereh Kyiv	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Livyi Bereh Kyiv - Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk	2:1 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
23.08.25	Livyi Bereh Kyiv - Kudrivka	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWW

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