Match Info

I Liqa - Round 20

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday


	Mingachevir		Şəfa

	1	X	2
	3.55	2.88	2.08
	3.1	2.62	2.5
	1.69	3.28	5.05	Watch
	3	2.63	2.3
	3.11	3.11	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.15)	2.9 ↓ (3.3)	2.84 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mingachevir
33.2%

Draw
33%

Şəfa
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

27.7%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

27.1%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mingachevir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Şəfa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Şəfa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mingachevir than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Şəfa than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Şəfa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mingachevir - Şəfa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Mustafayev E. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 2)
50', 2 - 0, Kalunga K. ⚽,
55', 2 - 1, Zamanov E. (Penalty Awarded),
86', 3 - 1, Qarayev T. ⚽,
88', 4 - 1, Abba U. ⚽,
90', 4 - 2, Ebrahimzadeh A. ⚽,
90+5', 5 - 2, Qarayev T. ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Mingachevir has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Şəfa is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Şəfa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mingachevir won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mingachevir won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mingachevir	3	0	1	2	3:7	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
18.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	1:1 ✺
12.03.26	Mingachevir - Səbail	0:1 ✺
05.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Mingachevir - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Şəfa - Mingachevir	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TLWWT
- Şəfa FK
Azerbaijan First Division
18.03.26	Şəfa - Shahdag Qusar	1:0 ✺
11.03.26	Shimal - Şəfa	0:2 ✺
05.03.26	Şəfa - Shahdag Qusar	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Difai Ağsu - Şəfa	1:8 ✺
19.02.26	Şəfa - Mingachevir	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
19.02.26	Şəfa - Mingachevir	2:2
05.11.25	Mingachevir - Şəfa	2:3

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