Match Info

I Liqa - Round 19

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday


	Baku Sporting		Mingachevir

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.05	2.4
	2.97	3.02	2.28
	4.03	2.10	2.71	Watch
	2.88	2.88	2.3
	2.69	3.13	2.38
	2.45	3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.48)	2.86 ↓ (3.05)	2.45 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baku Sporting
30.8%

Draw
31.9%

Mingachevir
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

29.5%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

30.1%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Baku Sporting's form might have worsened.

Mingachevir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baku Sporting than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mingachevir than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Baku Sporting - Mingachevir Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Allahverdiyev I. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Kalunga K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Sporting is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mingachevir has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mingachevir	3	0	1	2	3:7	-4	1
10	Baku Sporting	3	0	0	3	0:7	-7	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baku Sporting
Azerbaijan First Division
12.03.26	Difai Ağsu - Baku Sporting	1:3 ✺
05.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1 ✺
24.02.26	Səbail - Baku Sporting	0:0 ✺
18.02.26	Cəbrayıl - Baku Sporting	1:2 ✺
12.02.26	Baku Sporting - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLTWW
- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
12.03.26	Mingachevir - Səbail	0:1 ✺
05.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Mingachevir - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Şəfa - Mingachevir	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	Mingachevir - Zagatala	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
05.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1
26.11.25	Mingachevir - Baku Sporting	1:2
24.04.25	Mingachevir - Baku Sporting	4:0
20.02.25	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1
08.11.24	Mingachevir - Baku Sporting	1:2

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