Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 8

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		Tochigi City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.68	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.54	3.45	2.6
	2.83	3.45	2.35	Watch
	2.38	3.5	2.38
	2.5	3.74	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.34)	3.49 ↑ (3.39)	2.43 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
35.6%

Draw
26.4%

Tochigi City
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

27.4%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

26.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Tochigi City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tochigi City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montedio Yamagata, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tochigi City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Montedio Yamagata - Tochigi City Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tochigi City will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Shibuya T. (G) 19. Okamoto K. 3. Kumamoto Y. 49. Sakamoto K. 13. Nodake H. 17. Terayama T. 21. Tanaka W. 8. Doi S. 10. Kida R. 11. Disaro A. S. 25. Kokubu S.	31. Aizawa P. (G) 14. Kotake S. 42. Jonjic M. 17. Chinen T. 32. Koike Y. 20. Augusto P. 18. Kato M. 24. Nishiya K. 23. Yoshida A. 9. Suzuki M. 77. Tanaka P.
Substitutes
27. Enomoto K. 1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 24. Hiraga S. 55. Horikane S. 15. Kawai A. 7. Nakamura R. 9. Takahashi J. 14. Yanagimachi K. 20. Yoshio Kaina	1. Harada Y. (G) 19. Karlsson D.M. 6. Kato Jo 28. Konishi K. 7. Mori T. 10. Okaniwa Y. 29. Saito K. 44. Shimoda Y. 8. Yamashita K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Suzuki M. (Penalty Awarded),
43', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kokubu S. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
46', Tanaka W. ↓, Nakamura R. ↑,
61', Disaro A. S. ↓, Horikane S. ↑,
66', Pedro Augusto ↓, Mori T. ↑,
67', Kato M. ↓, Okaniwa Y. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Mori T. ⚽, Koike Y. (A),
74', Nodake H. ↓, Enomoto K. ↑,
80', Suzuki M. ↓, Yamashita K. ↑,
83', Kotake S. ↓, Shimoda Y. ↑,
84', Tanaka P. ↓, Karlsson D.M. ↑,
86', Terayama T. ↓, Yanagimachi K. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Kumamoto Y. ⚽, Horikane S. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Tochigi City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 J3 League
22.03.26	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Shonan Bellmare - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Montedio Yamagata - Blaublitz Akita	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Sagamihara - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Montedio Yamagata	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- Tochigi City FC
Japan J2 J3 League
22.03.26	Tochigi - Tochigi City	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Vanraure Hachinohe - Tochigi City	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Tochigi City - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Tochigi City - Shonan Bellmare	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Yokohama FC - Tochigi City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLL

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