Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 12

Date: 17 November 2025, Monday

Location: Mohamed Boumezrag Stadium (Chlef)


	Mostaganem		USM Alger

	1	X	2
	3.95	2.88	2.02
	4.43	2.88	2.02
	3.24	2.70	2.52	Watch
	4.49	2.98	1.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.24)	2.86 ↑ (2.7)	2.1 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mostaganem
23.1%

Draw
32.6%

USM Alger
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

34.4%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

33.3%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mostaganem has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mostaganem's form might have worsened.

USM Alger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting USM Alger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mostaganem than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USM Alger than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for USM Alger, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	6.7%	93.3%

Mostaganem - USM Alger Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. USM Alger will win (votes: 14 - 93.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USM Alger: 80.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mostaganem (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): USM Alger will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mostaganem (votes: 1 - 20%). USM Alger (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hannane A. (G) 11. Askar A. 4. Benamar B. 8. Benkhelifa T. 2. Boualleg A. 15. Boulkaboul C. 10. El Moudene A. 21. Gaagaa A. 9. Haroun A. 13. Lamri S. 3. Masmoudi B.	1. Sifour A. (G) 21. Alilet A. 13. Dehiri H. 27. Ghacha H. 10. Guenaoui G. 7. Khaldi A. 11. Likonza G. 4. Malone Junior C. 8. Merili I. 19. Radouani S. 30. Tendeng A.
Substitutes
18. Aichouche A. 0. Aziriyah M. (G) 14. Bengrina M. 19. Bibi A. A. B. 22. Bouguettaya A. 24. Khodja E. K. 7. Motrani Z.	3. Atmania S. 9. Benayad R. 24. Bouderbala M. 17. Bousseliou K. 15. Ernest E. 2. Kourdi W. 12. Loucif H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, ⚽,
18', 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, ⚽,
33', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, ⚽,
75', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 9).

Mostaganem is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

USM Alger is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, USM Alger is a strong favorite.

We predict that USM Alger will win today's game, with odds of 1.97.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mostaganem won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ES Mostaganem
Algerian Ligue 1
08.11.25	Khenchela - Mostaganem	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Mostaganem - Belouizdad	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Paradou - Mostaganem	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Mostaganem - ASO Chlef	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	MC Alger - Mostaganem	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- USM Alger
Algerian Ligue 1
08.11.25	Belouizdad - USM Alger	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	USM Alger - ASO Chlef	1:0 ✺
29.10.25	ES Sétif - USM Alger	1:3 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
25.10.25	USM Alger - AFAD Djékanou	3:0 ✺
Algerian Ligue 1
04.10.25	Constantine - USM Alger	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Algerian Ligue 1
06.03.25	USM Alger - Mostaganem	1:0

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