Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 23

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Mutilvera		Gernika

	1	X	2
	3.85	3	1.92
	4.09	3.33	1.9
	4.03	3.11	1.93	Watch
	3.9	3	1.85
	4.26	3.33	1.87
	4	3.2	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.05)	3.16 ↑ (3.04)	1.89 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mutilvera
22.7%

Draw
28.9%

Gernika
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

29.7%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

29.1%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mutilvera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mutilvera's form might have worsened.

Gernika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gernika's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mutilvera than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mutilvera, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gernika than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gernika, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mutilvera - Gernika Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, ⚽,
81', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mutilvera won 1.

Mutilvera is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gernika's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gernika will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Mutilvera won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mutilvera won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Mutilvera
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
08.02.26	Alavés B - Mutilvera	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Mutilvera - Ejea	1:3 ✺
25.01.26	Zaragoza B - Mutilvera	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Mutilvera - Tudelano	1:3 ✺
11.01.26	Náxara - Mutilvera	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLLW
- Gernika Club
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
07.02.26	Gernika - Real Unión de Irun	2:3 ✺
31.01.26	Gernika - SD Logroñés	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Alfaro - Gernika	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Gernika - Zaragoza B	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ejea - Gernika	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
07.12.25	Gernika - Mutilvera	1:0
10.02.24	Mutilvera - Gernika	3:0
01.10.23	Gernika - Mutilvera	1:1
14.05.23	Mutilvera - Gernika	0:1
15.01.23	Gernika - Mutilvera	2:1
15.05.22	Gernika - Mutilvera	0:1
08.01.22	Mutilvera - Gernika	0:0

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