Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 10

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Mārupe		JFK Ventspils

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.50	3.70
	1.65	3.70	4.25
	1.80	3.83	3.62	Watch
	1.67	3.50	4.00
	1.63	3.90	4.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.65)	3.69 ↓ (4.1)	3.98 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
52.9%

Draw
24.5%

JFK Ventspils
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

22.3%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

20.9%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

JFK Ventspils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mārupe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for JFK Ventspils than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Mārupe - JFK Ventspils Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Mārupe is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

JFK Ventspils's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

JFK Ventspils may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mārupe has had a series of away games.

In this match, Mārupe is the team to beat.

We predict that Mārupe will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mārupe won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mārupe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Marupe	21	9	2	10	34:32	2	29
13	JFK Ventspils	21	3	6	12	21:41	-20	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian Cup
30.05.26	JFC Viola - Mārupe	1:2 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
23.05.26	Mārupe - Rīgas FS 2	1:4 ✺
17.05.26	Riga 2 - Mārupe	0:4 ✺
09.05.26	Tukums 2000 2 - Mārupe	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Super Nova 2 - Mārupe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWWW
- JFK Ventspils
Latvian Cup
01.06.26	Upesciema Warriors - JFK Ventspils	0:3 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
23.05.26	Leevon PPK - JFK Ventspils	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	JFK Ventspils - Metta	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	JFK Ventspils - Rīgas FS 2	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Riga 2 - JFK Ventspils	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
01.11.25	JFK Ventspils - Mārupe	1:0
05.07.25	Mārupe - JFK Ventspils	1:2
15.09.24	JFK Ventspils - Mārupe	2:3
11.05.24	Mārupe - JFK Ventspils	1:0

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