Match Info

Super League - Round 17

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Naivas		Migori Youth

	1	X	2
	9.16	4.18	1.35	Watch
	2.2	2.5	3.5
	2.2	2.73	3.57
	2.16	2.66	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (2.02)	3.02 ↑ (2.83)	2.96 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Naivas
27.5%

Draw
35.9%

Migori Youth
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

31.7%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

27.7%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naivas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Naivas's form might have worsened.

Migori Youth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Migori Youth's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naivas than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Naivas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Migori Youth than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Migori Youth, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Naivas - Migori Youth Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2nd Half (1 - 2)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Naivas won 1.

Recent performances by Naivas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Migori Youth is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Naivas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Naivas won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Naivas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Migori	36	24	5	7	54:27	27	77
6	Naivas FC	36	17	9	10	45:27	18	60

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naivas FC
Kenyan Super League
11.01.26	3K - Naivas	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Naivas - Talanta	1:0 ✺
17.12.25	Naivas - Gucha Stars	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Kisumu All-Stars - Naivas	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Naivas - Nzoia United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLLL
- Migori Youth FC
Kenyan Super League
11.01.26	Migori Youth - Kabati	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Nzoia United - Migori Youth	1:0 ✺
17.12.25	Kibera Black Stars - Migori Youth	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Migori Youth - Mombasa United	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	MOFA - Migori Youth	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Super League
15.02.25	Naivas - Migori Youth	0:1
29.01.25	Migori Youth - Naivas	0:0
02.03.24	Naivas - Migori Youth	4:0
20.12.23	Migori Youth - Naivas	0:0
20.05.23	Migori Youth - Naivas	3:0
29.01.23	Naivas - Migori Youth	1:0

Upcoming Matches