Match Info

Super League - Round 4

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Markaziy Stadium (Qarshi)

Referee: Jasur M. (Uzb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Uzbekistan	MTRK Sport


	Nasaf Qarshi		Surkhon Termez

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	5.35
	1.58	3.64	6.43
	1.55	3.6	6.05	Watch
	1.53	3.3	5.75
	1.58	3.59	6.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.54)	3.55 ↓ (3.73)	5.97 ↑ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Nasaf Qarshi
58.8%

Draw
25.8%

Surkhon Termez
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

24.7%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

23.9%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nasaf Qarshi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Surkhon Termez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nasaf Qarshi than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Surkhon Termez than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Nasaf Qarshi - Surkhon Termez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nematov A. (G) 8. Abdirakhmatov Z. 32. Xushvaqtov Q. 92. Eshmurodov U. (C) 5. Gaybullaev G. 15. Rustamov O. 20. Otubanjo Y. 17. Rakhmatov M. 7. Shala A. 10. Abdikholikov B. 14. Mukhitdinov S.	86. Merganov D. (G) 2. Karimov B. 4. Nematkhonov N. 5. Khodzhaniyazov D. 66. Shaydulov B. 7. Tursunov D. 6. Shamsiev B. (C) 14. Ashuboyev T. 10. Abdullazhonov S. 19. Kodirov F. 17. Abdukhamidov S.
Substitutes
55. Abdunazarov D. 6. Bakhromov S. 33. Khalilov B. 4. Komilov A. 16. Muratbaev S. (G) 23. Murtazoyev D. 76. Sadullayev Z. 99. Sokari K. 80. Usmonov D.	25. Boymurodov O. (G) 9. Chinedu S. 21. Dzebniauri T. 3. Dzhumatov B. 11. Friday R. 22. Juraev J. 27. Musaxonov M. 26. Shukurullaev B. 18. Uktamov B.
Coaches
Berdiev R.	Kudryashov S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mukhitdinov S. ↓, Abdunazarov D. ↑,
46', Tursunov D. ↓, Friday R. ↑,
46', Kodirov F. ↓, Chinedu S. ↑,
56', Gaybullaev G. 🟨,
58', Otubanjo Y. ↓, Usmonov D. ↑,
58', Abdikholikov B. ↓, Bakhromov S. ↑,
78', Shamsiev B. ↓, Dzebniauri T. ↑,
81', Abdukhamidov S. ↓, Uktamov B. ↑,
81', Abdullazhonov S. ↓, Shukurullaev B. ↑,
84', Rustamov O. ↓, Sokari K. ↑,
84', Rakhmatov M. ↓, Komilov A. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 1, Dzebniauri T. ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nasaf won 4.

Nasaf is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Surkhon's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nasaf may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nasaf is considered a favorite.

We predict that Nasaf will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Nasaf won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 36:10. (average 2.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nasaf won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:3. (average 2.9:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Nasaf Qarshi	22	9	7	6	33:21	12	34
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19:28	-9	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nasaf Qarshi
Uzbek League
12.03.26	Dinamo Samarqand - Nasaf Qarshi	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Sogdiana Jizzakh - Nasaf Qarshi	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Nasaf Qarshi - Xorazm Urganch	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.02.26	Al-Sharjah - Nasaf Qarshi	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Nasaf Qarshi - Al-Shorta Baghdad	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 TWWWT
- Surkhon Termez
Uzbek League
11.03.26	Surkhon Termez - Bunyodkor	0:0 ✺
05.03.26	Surkhon Termez - Neftchi Fargona	0:3 ✺
28.02.26	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Surkhon Termez	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
17.02.26	Rotor - Surkhon Termez	0:1 ✺
09.02.26	Sochi - Surkhon Termez	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLLW?

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek League
23.08.25	Surkhon Termez - Nasaf Qarshi	1:2
13.04.25	Nasaf Qarshi - Surkhon Termez	1:0
18.10.24	Nasaf Qarshi - Surkhon Termez	1:1
20.05.24	Surkhon Termez - Nasaf Qarshi	0:1
29.08.23	Surkhon Termez - Nasaf Qarshi	1:2
09.04.23	Nasaf Qarshi - Surkhon Termez	3:2
10.09.22	Surkhon Termez - Nasaf Qarshi	0:2

Nasaf Qarshi - Surkhon Termez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide