Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 3 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Bakcell Arena (Baku)

Referee: Berke B. (Hun)


	Neftchi Baku		Željezničar Sarajevo

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	3.75	Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.6
	1.87	3.4	4.1
	1.97	3.5	3.7
	1.91	3.39	4.19
	1.86	3.62	4.05	Watch
	1.98	3.65	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.03)	3.49 ↑ (3.33)	3.89 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
49.1%

Draw
26.8%

Željezničar Sarajevo
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

27.5%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

27.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Željezničar Sarajevo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Željezničar Sarajevo than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	3.1%	3.1%

Neftchi Baku - Željezničar Sarajevo Predictions

Users Predictions: Neftchi Baku will win (30 of 32 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brkic I. (G) 26. Buludov O. 44. Yuri Matias 4. Tamas M. 7. Aliev A. 23. Jaber A. 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 14. Israfilov E. 5. Saief K. 10. Ozobic F. 11. Lebon K.	13. Muftic V. (G) 24. Galic M. 5. Kosoric A. (C) 6. Cocalic E. 33. Jasarevic I. 44. Rustemovic E. 77. Ovcina H. 18. Biber E. 8. Mekic N. 9. Haracic D. 7. Krpic S.
Substitutes
37. Alibayli E. 77. Bogomolskiy E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 17. Hadzhiyev R. 3. Haqverdi H. 99. Koffi E. 30. Mammadov A. (G) 19. Salahly A. 27. Yusifli F. 21. Zulfugarli I.	26. Amoah J. 23. Beca O. 17. Drljo A. 30. Dubackic D. 11. Gasal H. 1. Mulalic A. (G) 3. Music A. 21. Turanjanin N.
Coaches
Mutu A.	Basic N.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-2.

Neftchi has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Željezničar is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Željezničar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Željezničar have a series of home games.

In this match Neftchi is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Neftchi won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.23	Spartak Moscow - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
15.07.23	Neftchi Baku - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
08.07.23	Neftchi Baku - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:4 ✺
01.07.23	Zenit - Neftchi Baku	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- Željezničar Sarajevo
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
20.07.23	Dinamo Minsk - Željezničar Sarajevo	1:2 ✺
13.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Dinamo Minsk	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Kapfenberger SV	2:0 ✺
01.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Tuzla City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
27.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Neftchi Baku	2:2

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