Match Info

Date: 15 April 2022, Friday


	New York Red Bulls 2		Rio Grande Valley

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.6	2.1
	3	3.55	2.02
	2.9	3.35	2.1
	2.94	3.62	2.23
	2.91	3.56	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (3.07)	3.54 ↓ (3.6)	2.12 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York Red Bulls 2
31.4%

Draw
25.7%

Rio Grande Valley
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

25.5%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

25.8%

45.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York Red Bulls 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Rio Grande Valley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York Red Bulls 2 than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Grande Valley than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

New York Red Bulls 2 - Rio Grande Valley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 11).

New York Red Bulls 2 has the most likely position - 14 (34.36%), has project points - 29, has currently - 3, has a small chance of playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of qtrs (2%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Rio Grande Valley has the most likely position - 9 (12.98%), has project points - 42, has currently - 3, has a chance of playoffs (33%), has a small chance of qtrs (15%), has a small chance of semis (6%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has very small quality 9, small importance 13, small match rating 11. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The competitors look crappy now.

New York Red Bulls 2 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Rio Grande Valley will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York Red Bulls 2
USL Championship
02.04.22	Tulsa - New York Red Bulls 2	3:2 ✺
23.03.22	New York Red Bulls 2 - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
19.03.22	New York Red Bulls 2 - Loudoun United	0:3 ✺
16.03.22	Atlanta United II - New York Red Bulls 2	0:1 ✺
12.03.22	Miami - New York Red Bulls 2	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLLWL
- Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
USL Championship
09.04.22	Rio Grande Valley - Indy Eleven	1:2 ✺
27.03.22	Rio Grande Valley - San Antonio	1:2 ✺
23.03.22	LA Galaxy II - Rio Grande Valley	1:0 ✺
19.03.22	Orange County SC - Rio Grande Valley	2:1 ✺
12.03.22	Rio Grande Valley - Oakland Roots	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW

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