Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Abovyan City Stadium (Abovyan)

Referee: Kastrati V. (Kos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Armenia	Armenia TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1


	Noah Yerevan		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	7	4.5	1.38	Watch
	7.25	4.75	1.35
	7.5	5	1.35	Watch
	8.01	4.75	1.32
	7.58	4.69	1.39	Watch
	8.3	5.05	1.34	Watch
	7.5	5	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.59 ↑ (5.9)	4.82 ↑ (4.1)	1.35 ↓ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Noah Yerevan
12.2%

Draw
19.3%

AEK Athens
68.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.4%

22.1%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

22.4%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noah Yerevan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AEK Athens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noah Yerevan than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AEK Athens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	3.6%	96.4%

Noah Yerevan - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: AEK Athens will win (24 of 25 users predict this - 96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.32% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Cancarevic O. (G) 37. Silva G. 26. Miljkovic A. (C) 4. Thorarinsson G. 28. Pablo 20. Gambos M. 17. Sangare G. 27. Manvelyan G. 93. Pinson V. 9. Matheus Aias 7. Ferreira H.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 21. Vida D. (C) 2. Moukoudi H. 18. Callens A. 4. Szymanski D. 13. Pineda O. 19. Eliasson N. 23. Ljubicic R. 8. Gacinovic M. 7. Garcia L.
Substitutes
18. Avanesyan A. 11. Cinari E. 10. Dashyan A. 8. Gregorio G. 19. Hambardzumyan H. 14. Mendoza B. 3. Muradyan S. 81. Oulad Omar I. 30. Petrosyan G. 92. Ploshchadnyi A. (G)	5. Amrabat N. 22. Fernandes P. 25. Galanopoulos K. 28. Hajsafi E. 11. Koita A. 9. Lamela E. 20. Mantalos P. 24. Mitoglou G. 37. Pereyra R. 3. Pilios S. 99. Theocharis G. (G) 10. Zuber S.
Coaches
Mota R.	Almeyda M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Garcia L. ⚽, Gacinovic M. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Pinson V. ⚽,
35', Gambos M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Matheus Aias ↓, Gregorio G. ↑,
46', Gambos M. ↓, Avanesyan A. ↑,
53', Pablo 🟨,
58', Ljubicic R. 🟨,
58', Sangare G. 🟨,
67', 2 - 1, Cancarevic O. ⚽,
68', Pineda O. ↓, Pereyra R. ↑,
68', Ljubicic R. ↓, Lamela E. ↑,
68', Gacinovic M. ↓, Koita A. ↑,
72', Callens A. ↓, Hajsafi E. ↑,
78', Pinson V. ↓, Muradyan S. ↑,
78', Eliasson N. ↓, Amrabat N. ↑,
79', Koita A. 🟨,
82', Pablo ↓, Hambardzumyan H. ↑,
83', Rota L. 🟨,
90+8', 3 - 1, Gregorio G. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Noah in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches AEK is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently AEK have a series of guest games.

In this match AEK is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Noah won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Noah won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Noah Yerevan
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Sliema Wanderers - Noah Yerevan	0:0 ✺
25.07.24	Noah Yerevan - Sliema Wanderers	7:0 ✺
18.07.24	Shkendija Tetovo - Noah Yerevan	1:2 ✺
11.07.24	Noah Yerevan - Shkendija Tetovo	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.06.24	Vojvodina - Noah Yerevan	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWWWL
- AEK Athens
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Inter Escaldes - AEK Athens	0:4 ✺
24.07.24	AEK Athens - Inter Escaldes	4:3 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.24	Omonia - AEK Athens	1:1 ✺
06.07.24	Club Brugge - AEK Athens	3:2 ✺
28.06.24	AZ Alkmaar - AEK Athens	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WWTLL

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