Match Info

Super League - Championship Group - Round 5

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Toumba Stadium (Thessaloniki)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	SportPlus
Belarus	Sport TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Poland	SportKlub
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Usa	SportPlus


	PAOK		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.5	4.1	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.4	Watch
	1.87	3.47	4.67
	1.83	3.36	4.54	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.2
	1.85	3.35	4.38	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.41)	3.38 ↑ (3.25)	4.15 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

PAOK
49.3%

Draw
27.9%

AEK Athens
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.7%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PAOK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in PAOK's performance.

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Athens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with PAOK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Athens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	5%	20%

PAOK - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. PAOK will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). AEK will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PAOK: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - AEK (3.01) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - PAOK (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - AEK (1.86) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH +1 - AEK (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AEK Athens will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. PAOK (votes: 2 - 13.3%). AEK (votes: 13 - 86.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pavlenka J. (G) 3. Kenny J. 16. Kedziora T. 5. Michailidis G. 21. Baba A. R. 27. Ozdoev M. 8. Meite S. 14. Zivkovic A. (C) 65. Konstantelias G. 11. Taison 19. Jeremejeff A.	91. Brignoli A. (G) 12. Rota L. 21. Vida D. (C) 44. Relvas F. 29. Penrice J. 11. Koita A. 13. Pineda O. 18. Marin R. 10. Joao Mario 25. Varga B. 90. Zini
Substitutes
22. Bianco A. 52. Chatsidis D. 7. Giakoumakis G. 18. Ivanusec L. 41. Monastirlis D. (G) 56. Mythou A. 10. Pelkas D. 35. Sanchez J. 32. Taylor G. 99. Tsiftsis A. (G) 33. Tsopouroglou D. 4. Vogliacco A.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 15. Georgiev M. 4. Grujic M. 9. Jovic L. 7. Kutesa D. 23. Ljubicic R. 20. Mantalos P. 2. Moukoudi H. 37. Pereyra R. 3. Pilios S. 80. Sahabo H.
Coaches
Lucescu R.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Koita A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kenny J. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
46', Varga B. ↓, Ljubicic R. ↑,
48', Baba A. R. 🟨,
63', Koita A. ↓, Jovic L. ↑,
72', Joao Mario ↓, Kutesa D. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Jovic L. ⚽, Kutesa D. (A),
74', Jeremejeff A. ↓, Mythou A. ↑,
74', Meite S. ↓, Bianco A. ↑,
77', Bianco A. 🟨,
83', Taison ↓, Pelkas D. ↑,
83', Zini ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
84', Zivkovic A. 🟨,
85', Konstantelias G. ↓, Giakoumakis G. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Mythou A. ⚽, Zivkovic A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 3.

PAOK has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AEK is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, PAOK is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:27. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, PAOK won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.1:0.9).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

PAOK: 13.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	AEK Athens	6	4	2	0	16:3	13	14
3	PAOK	5	4	0	1	12:5	7	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PAOK FC
Greek Super League
10.05.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	PAOK - Olympiacos Piraeus	3:1 ✺
Greek Cup
25.04.26	PAOK - OFI	2:3 ET ✺
Greek Super League
19.04.26	AEK Athens - PAOK	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	PAOK - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLLT
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
10.05.26	AEK Athens - Panathinaikos	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	AEK Athens - PAOK	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	AEK Athens - Rayo Vallecano	3:1 ✺
09.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
19.04.26	AEK Athens - PAOK	3:0
15.02.26	PAOK - AEK Athens	0:0
19.10.25	AEK Athens - PAOK	0:2
11.05.25	PAOK - AEK Athens	1:0
30.03.25	AEK Athens - PAOK	2:3
02.02.25	PAOK - AEK Athens	1:2
Greek Cup
09.01.25	PAOK - AEK Athens	1:1 ET

Upcoming Matches