Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium (Yerevan)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)


	Noah Yerevan		Ružomberok

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	4	Watch
	1.82	3.25	4.2
	1.85	3.3	4.3
	1.9	3.27	4.49
	1.91	3.37	4.09	Watch
	1.83	3.3	3.9
	1.95	3.49	4.23	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.65)	3.32 ↑ (3.16)	4.19 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Noah Yerevan
49.8%

Draw
28%

Ružomberok
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.5%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

29.8%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noah Yerevan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Noah Yerevan's performance.

Ružomberok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ružomberok might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noah Yerevan than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Noah Yerevan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ružomberok than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ružomberok could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.2%	6.8%	4.1%

Noah Yerevan - Ružomberok Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Noah will win (votes: 65 - 89%). Ružomberok will win (votes: 3 - 4.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 6.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Noah: 81.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Cancarevic O. (G) 26. Miljkovic A. (C) 37. Silva G. 28. Pablo 4. Thorarinsson G. 81. Oulad Omar I. 17. Sangare G. 27. Manvelyan G. 11. Cinari E. 8. Gregorio G. 7. Ferreira H.	34. Fruhwald T. (G) 19. Gomola M. 3. Maslo J. 32. Maly M. 8. Domonkos K. 11. Lavrincik S. 6. Mudry T. 23. Madlenak M. 14. Hladik J. 30. Chrien M. (C) 13. Jackuliak D.
Substitutes
18. Avanesyan A. 10. Dashyan A. 19. Hambardzumyan H. 9. Matheus Aias 14. Mendoza B. 3. Muradyan S. 30. Petrosyan G. 92. Ploshchadnyi A. (G)	18. Boda M. 5. Bozik R. 20. Chobot M. 15. Gerec S. 26. Kelemen M. 4. Luteran O. 28. Selecky A. 35. Sokol B. (G) 24. Szolgai M. 1. Tapaj D. (G)
Coaches
Mota R.	Smetana O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Gregorio G. ⚽,
34', Jackuliak D. ↓, Chobot M. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Domonkos K. ↓, Selecky A. ↑,
46', Cinari E. ↓, Pinson V. ↑,
48', Lavrincik S. 🟨,
68', Oulad Omar I. ↓, Avanesyan A. ↑,
77', Madlenak M. ↓, Boda M. ↑,
77', Mudry T. ↓, Luteran O. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Manvelyan G. (Pen),
86', Manvelyan G. ↓, Petrosyan G. ↑,
86', Gregorio G. ↓, Matheus Aias ↑,
90+3', 3 - 0, Matheus Aias ⚽, Pinson V. (A),

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium.

Noah is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Ružomberok is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Noah is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Noah Yerevan
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.08.24	AEK Athens - Noah Yerevan	1:0 ✺
Armenian Premier League
11.08.24	Shirak Gyumri - Noah Yerevan	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.24	Noah Yerevan - AEK Athens	3:1 ✺
01.08.24	Sliema Wanderers - Noah Yerevan	0:0 ✺
25.07.24	Noah Yerevan - Sliema Wanderers	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LWWTW
- MFK Ružomberok
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.08.24	Hajduk Split - Ružomberok	0:1 ✺
Slovak Superliga
11.08.24	Ružomberok - Trenčín	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.08.24	Ružomberok - Hajduk Split	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.08.24	Trabzonspor - Ružomberok	1:0 ✺
Slovak Superliga
28.07.24	Ružomberok - Dukla Banská Bystrica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.1 WWTLT

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