Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Nocerina		Città di Brindisi

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.25	4.00
	1.72	3.15	4.4
	1.83	3.33	3.57
	1.85	3.46	3.8	Watch
	1.79	3.25	3.5
	1.79	3.32	4.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.69)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)	3.88 ↓ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nocerina
49.9%

Draw
27.1%

Città di Brindisi
23%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.1%

27.7%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

27.1%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nocerina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Città di Brindisi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nocerina than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nocerina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Città di Brindisi than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Città di Brindisi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nocerina - Città di Brindisi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
77', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Serie D - Group H Playoffs and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nocerina won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Brindisi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Nocerina for this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Nocerina has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:5 (averaging 1.1:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nocerina against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 8:0 goals (averaging 2:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Brindisi	9	6	0	3	13:8	5	18
8	Nocerina	9	4	1	4	13:13	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Nocerina - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 54.15%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nocerina
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.10.26	Nocerina - Turris	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group H
04.10.26	Melfi - Nocerina	0:1 ✺
27.09.26	Nocerina - Palmese 1914	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Bisceglie - Nocerina	3:1 ✺
16.09.26	Nocerina - Ischia Isolaverde	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWLW
- SSD Città di Brindisi
Italian Serie D - Group H
04.10.26	Città di Brindisi - Real Normanna	3:0 ✺
27.09.26	Francavilla - Città di Brindisi	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Città di Brindisi - Turris	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Virtus Francavilla - Città di Brindisi	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Città di Brindisi - Fidelis Andria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
13.04.25	Nocerina - Città di Brindisi	2:0
01.12.24	Città di Brindisi - Nocerina	2:1
19.02.23	Città di Brindisi - Nocerina	1:0
16.10.22	Nocerina - Città di Brindisi	3:0
09.03.22	Città di Brindisi - Nocerina	1:0
03.10.21	Nocerina - Città di Brindisi	3:0
12.01.20	Nocerina - Città di Brindisi	0:0

Nocerina - Città di Brindisi