Match Info

WE League Cup Women - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday


	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.10	2.50
	2.52	3.05	2.52
	2.61	3.35	2.52
	2.5	3.16	2.65	Watch
	2.55	2.95	2.45
	2.62	3.33	2.51
	2.50	3.10	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.35)	3.15 ↓ (3.3)	2.52 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara
35.4%

Draw
28.7%

Omiya Ardija
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

27.6%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

27.7%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (-2%)

Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Sasai K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
85', 1 - 1, Norimatsu R. ⚽,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - WE League Cup Women Playoffs - Semi - finals and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nojima Stella won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Omiya Ardija may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Omiya Ardija has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Nojima Stella has recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:8 (averaging 0.7:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nojima Stella against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 2:5 goals (averaging 0.4:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Omiya Ardija W	6	3	0	1	11:8	3	12
5	Nojima Stella W	6	3	0	1	9:8	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Omiya Ardija - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.7%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara
Japan WE League Cup Women
27.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara	0:2 ✺
23.09.26	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - Chifure AS Elfen Saitama	1:2 penalties ✺
19.09.26	INAC Kobe Leonessa - Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - MyNavi Sendai	2:0 ✺
Japan WE League Women
06.09.26	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - INAC Kobe Leonessa	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 WLWWL
- Omiya Ardija Women
Japan WE League Cup Women
27.09.26	Omiya Ardija - JEF United Chiba	1:2 penalties ✺
23.09.26	Omiya Ardija - MyNavi Sendai	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Omiya Ardija	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
Japan WE League Women
05.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Albirex Niigata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan WE League Women
16.05.26	Omiya Ardija - Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara	0:4
18.10.25	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - Omiya Ardija	1:2
01.03.25	Omiya Ardija - Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara	2:1
22.09.24	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - Omiya Ardija	0:0
24.03.24	Omiya Ardija - Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara	1:0
11.11.23	Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - Omiya Ardija	0:1
26.03.23	Omiya Ardija - Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara	0:0

Nojima Stella Kanagawa Sagamihara - Omiya Ardija: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide