Match Info

Gaucho 2 - Round 12

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday


	Novo Hamburgo		Esportivo Bento Gonçalves

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	4.95
	1.6	3.37	5.32
				Watch
	1.62	3.35	5.44
	1.5	3.8	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.48)	3.46 ↓ (3.64)	5.68 ↓ (6.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novo Hamburgo
57.4%

Draw
26.5%

Esportivo Bento Gonçalves
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

25%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

24.4%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novo Hamburgo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Esportivo Bento Gonçalves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novo Hamburgo than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Novo Hamburgo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esportivo Bento Gonçalves than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Novo Hamburgo - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Esportivo (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Hamburgo (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburgo (votes: 1 - 50%). Esportivo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', 2 - 0, ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Gaucho 2 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

Hamburgo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Esportivo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Hamburgo is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hamburgo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Hamburgo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Novo Hamburgo
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
12.07.25	Novo Hamburgo - Aimoré	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Frederiquense - Novo Hamburgo	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Novo Hamburgo - Santa Cruz-RS	0:0 ✺
25.06.25	GE Glória - Novo Hamburgo	1:2 ✺
16.06.25	Novo Hamburgo - Passo Fundo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTTWW
- Esportivo Bento Gonçalves
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
12.07.25	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - Veranopolis	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - GE Glória	0:1 ✺
30.06.25	Passo Fundo - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves	2:1 ✺
24.06.25	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - Gramadense	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Real SC - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
11.02.23	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - Novo Hamburgo	0:0
29.03.21	Esportivo Bento Gonçalves - Novo Hamburgo	1:2
08.03.20	Novo Hamburgo - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves	2:1

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