Match Info

Liga Women - Round 9

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)


	Once Caldas		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	3.65	3.45	1.82
	2.82	3.31	2.33
	3.49	3.79	1.84	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.2
	3.08	3.18	2.26	Watch
	2.48	2.9	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.48)	3.26 ↑ (2.9)	2.15 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
29.6%

Draw
28%

Deportivo Pasto
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

29.7%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

24.6%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Once Caldas's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Pasto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Once Caldas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Pasto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Roman C. (G) 15. Ramirez M. 23. Angulo E. 5. Ruiz N. 24. Valencia A. 6. Orozco D. 8. Valencia D. 20. Guzman M. (C) 3. Zapata M. 21. Ramirez A. 14. Pastrana N.	31. Cardozo L. (G) 4. Marin S. 27. Quinones C. 2. Motta A. 22. Olarte A. 13. Erazo V. 8. Chaves D. 25. Pulgarin L. 10. Garzon S. 7. Preciado M. 11. Romero K. (C)
Substitutes
9. Amaya A. 18. Aristizsbal P. 25. Castano M. 1. Castro A. (G) 7. Contreras K. 10. Franco V. 4. Giraldo C. 2. Montoya S. 17. Renteria K.	29. Angel S. 15. Hernandez A. 33. Rodriguez Garcia L. 12. Velasco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Orozco D. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Guzman M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Marin S. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
58', Ramirez A. ↓, Franco V. ↑,
62', Zapata M. 🟨,
65', Guzman M. ↓, Amaya A. ↑,
70', Amaya A. 🟨,
75', Amaya A. 🟨,
87', Pulgarin L. ↓, Angel S. ↑,
90+1', Ruiz N. ↓, Contreras K. ↑,
90+2', Pastrana N. ↓, Renteria K. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 15).

Once Caldas is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Deportivo Pasto is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Deportivo Pasto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Once Caldas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas Women
Colombian Liga Women
28.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	3:0 ✺
15.04.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Cali	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Inter Bogotá - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Once Caldas - América de Cali	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Millonarios - Once Caldas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Deportivo Pasto Women
Colombian Liga Women
26.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pasto	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Pasto	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Liga Women
11.06.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	2:2
31.05.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	1:2

Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide