Match Info

Date: 14 February 2021, Sunday


	Ostia Mare		Foligno

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.55	3.1
	2.4	3.1	2.7
	2.48	2.75	2.95
	2.57	2.86	3.12
	2.62	2.88	2.75
	2.38	3.18	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.45)	2.89 ↓ (3.2)	2.91 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ostia Mare
36.7%

Draw
31.8%

Foligno
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

28.1%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

20.3%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Ostia Mare have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Foligno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ostia Mare that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Foligno than the current prediction. (+17.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Foligno could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ostia Mare - Foligno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D to Group A and 12).

Ostia Mare has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Foligno is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ostia Mare could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ostia Mare won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Ostia Mare won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
07.02.21	Pianese - Ostia Mare	1:0 ✺
03.02.21	Ostia Mare - Trastevere	1:2 ✺
30.01.21	Trestina - Ostia Mare	2:1
24.01.21	Ostia Mare - Montevarchi	1:3 ✺
17.01.21	Follonica Gavorrano - Ostia Mare	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT
- Foligno
Italian Serie D - Group E
10.02.21	Trastevere - Foligno	1:0 ✺
07.02.21	Foligno - Flaminia Civita Castellana	3:1 ✺
03.02.21	ACN Siena - Foligno	0:0 ✺
31.01.21	Foligno - Pianese	0:2 ✺
27.01.21	Foligno - Scandicci	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group G
02.10.16	Ostia Mare - Foligno	1:1

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