Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 3

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.1
	2.2	3	2.95
	2.28	3.05	3.05
	2.34	3.1	3.07
	6.22	1.79	2.81	Watch
	2.3	3.05	3.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.21)	2.83 ↓ (3.07)	3.02 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
33.3%

Draw
34.4%

Talavera de la Reina
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

29.7%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

28.2%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ourense CF's form might have worsened.

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ourense CF, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 12. Jelbat A. 22. Yuste A. 3. Sanz H. 16. Munoz D. 8. Ramos J. 21. Guerrero A. 23. Punzano I. 17. Ouhdadi O. 7. Bouzaig A.	1. Gonzalez J. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L. 16. Navarro I. 6. Pitu 7. Di Renzo G. 9. Moreno M. 19. Gomez V.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 6. Castillo N. 19. Garcia D. 20. Gueye L. 24. Moreno C. 15. Piera J. 5. Prado M. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.	15. Arroyo N. 2. Cuenca D. 23. Farrando M. 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. 14. Molina A. 13. Rocafort R. (G) 22. Rodriguez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Munoz D. (Own goal),
14', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
22', Moreno M. 🟨,
29', Yuste A. 🟥,
37', Punzano I. ↓, Prado M. ↑,
45+9', Navarro I. 🟨,
45+13', 1 - 1, Bouzaig A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ouacharaf B. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
55', Gomez V. ↓, Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↑,
55', Moreno M. ↓, Arroyo N. ↑,
60', Ramos J. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
60', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
60', Bouzaig A. ↓, Moreno C. ↑,
73', Guerrero A. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Sanchez L. ⚽,
84', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

Ourense CF is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Talavera has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Talavera may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ourense CF has had a series of away games.

Ourense CF is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Laredo - Ourense CF	1:5 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.09.25	Osasuna B - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao B	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.08.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ourense CF	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Coruxo - Ourense CF	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTTWW
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ferrol - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Jaraíz - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Talavera de la Reina - Linares Deportivo	3:0 ✺
13.08.25	Talavera de la Reina - Alcorcón	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWWL

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