Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 6

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Lima F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Paços de Ferreira		Porto B

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	2.88	Watch
				Watch
	2.42	3	2.98
	2.58	3.08	3.06
	2.54	3.00	2.92	Watch
	2.47	3.05	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.25)	3.03 ↓ (3.1)	2.98 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
37.8%

Draw
30.9%

Porto B
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

29%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

26%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Porto B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto B than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	50%	8.3%

Paços de Ferreira - Porto B Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Porto B will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Paços de Ferreira (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Marafona (G) 21. Anilson 4. Kauan 23. Ferreira T. (C) 15. Dias L. 13. Pinto J. 88. Francisco Ramos 33. Fernandinho 90. Lumungo R. 7. Diego Fernandes 30. Costinha	51. Fernandes D. (G) 46. Pedro Lima 73. Bras G. (C) 44. Felipe Silva 80. Henrique Kaio 92. Teixeira J. 88. Andrade D. 56. Kaue Rodrigues 47. Alarcon A. 43. Melnichenko T. 49. Sousa G.
Substitutes
2. Cardoso G. 26. Cunha N. 19. Gomes F. 12. Jeimes (G) 6. Joao Caiado 10. Matheus Martins 77. Rafael 36. Silva V. 9. Victor J.	87. Caicedo B. 72. Miranda A. 50. Nagata K. 68. Oliveira A. 54. Ribeiro A. 91. Ribeiro G. (G) 76. Rodrigues D. 58. Silva T. 79. Vonic L.
Coaches
Candido F.	Brandao J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Melnichenko T. ⚽, Kaue Rodrigues (A),
24', Henrique Kaio 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Anilson ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 1, Costinha ⚽, Diego Fernandes (A),
45+4', Pinto J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alarcon A. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
46', Bras G. ↓, Ribeiro A. ↑,
47', Felipe Silva 🟨,
48', Kauan 🟥,
51', Pinto J. ↓, Rafael ↑,
54', 2 - 2, Caicedo B. ⚽,
58', Francisco Ramos 🟨,
62', Anilson 🟨,
65', Henrique Kaio ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
70', Francisco Ramos 🟨,
72', Teixeira J. ↓, Vonic L. ↑,
73', Diego Fernandes ↓, Gomes F. ↑,
79', Caicedo B. 🟨,
80', Dias L. ↓, Cardoso G. ↑,
80', Costinha ↓, Silva V. ↑,
80', Sousa G. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
90+2', Pedro Lima 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paços de Ferreira won 2.

Paços de Ferreira is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Porto B is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Paços de Ferreira won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paços de Ferreira won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Porto B - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.01%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.25	Torreense - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Paços de Ferreira	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leiria	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Académico de Viseu - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Paços de Ferreira - Vizela	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLTTL
- Porto B
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.25	Porto B - Leiria	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Académico de Viseu - Porto B	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Porto B - Farense	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Vizela - Porto B	4:0 ✺
10.08.25	Porto B - Feirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
06.04.25	Porto B - Paços de Ferreira	1:0
10.11.24	Paços de Ferreira - Porto B	2:2
12.05.24	Porto B - Paços de Ferreira	1:3
07.01.24	Paços de Ferreira - Porto B	3:0
13.04.19	Porto B - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
15.12.18	Paços de Ferreira - Porto B	0:1

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