Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes (Vila Nova de Gaia)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Porto Canal


	Porto B		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.5	1.9
	3.2	3.2	2
	3.6	3.4	1.95
	3.57	3.35	2.09
	3.92	3.42	1.92	Watch
	3.59	3.45	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↓ (3.85)	3.39 ↓ (3.51)	1.98 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto B
25.8%

Draw
27.4%

Leiria
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

26.6%

49.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

26.8%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto B than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+2%)

Porto B - Leiria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Fernandes D. (G) 76. Rodrigues D. 54. Ribeiro A. (C) 44. Felipe Silva 84. Cunha M. 92. Teixeira J. 88. Andrade D. 56. Kaue Rodrigues 49. Sousa G. 43. Melnichenko T. 87. Caicedo B.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 16. Ze Pedro 6. Rodriguez G. 3. Baro M. 11. Jair da Silva 17. Lucho Vega 21. Pires M. 10. van der Gaag J. 9. Munoz J. (C) 19. Fernandez P.
Substitutes
59. Andrade T. 95. Cande A. 64. Gomes L. 80. Henrique Kaio 66. Lima B. 50. Nagata K. 68. Oliveira A. 91. Ribeiro G. (G) 58. Silva T.	1. Carrasco S. (G) 41. Daniel Borges 20. Gomes B. 29. Mendes J. 86. Michel D. 7. Quizera F. 15. Silva J. 52. Sylla H. 14. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Brandao J.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', Baro M. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
12', 0 - 1, Felipe Silva (Own goal),
25', Ze Pedro 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Melnichenko T. ⚽, Teixeira J. (A),
39', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
41', Cunha M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lucho Vega ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
51', Maga 🟨,
52', Teixeira J. 🟨,
57', Caicedo B. ↓, Andrade T. ↑,
58', Daniel Borges 🟨,
63', Teixeira J. ↓, Oliveira A. ↑,
67', Jair da Silva ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
69', Melnichenko T. ↓, Cande A. ↑,
70', Andrade D. ↓, Gomes L. ↑,
70', Rodrigues D. ↓, Lima B. ↑,
73', Maga ↓, Sylla H. ↑,
74', Pires M. ↓, Michel D. ↑,
78', Gomes L. 🟥,
86', Michel D. 🟨,
90+2', Felipe Silva 🟨,
90+3', Cunha M. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Munoz J. ⚽, Fernandez P. (A),
90+11', Kaue Rodrigues 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Porto B has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leiria's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Porto B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Leiria might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Porto B won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Leiria - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 49.06%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto B
Portuguese Liga 2
31.08.25	Académico de Viseu - Porto B	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Porto B - Farense	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Vizela - Porto B	4:0 ✺
10.08.25	Porto B - Feirense	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Trofense - Porto B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLTW
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
29.08.25	Leiria - Torreense	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leiria	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Leiria	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Leiria - Académico de Viseu	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
20.07.25	Leiria - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
09.02.25	Leiria - Porto B	0:0
01.09.24	Porto B - Leiria	1:1
03.02.24	Leiria - Porto B	1:1
27.08.23	Porto B - Leiria	2:1

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