Match Info

Serie B - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Perenzoni D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Palermo		Bari

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.75	5.75	Watch
	1.62	3.75	5.15
	1.64	3.9	5.9
	1.12	1.00	1.00	Watch
	1.68	3.9	4.99	Watch
	1.68	3.55	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.87)	3.31 ↓ (3.5)	4.62 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Palermo
55.4%

Draw
26%

Bari
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.3%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

26.8%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	13%	4.3%

Palermo - Bari Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palermo will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
66. Joronen J. (G) 5. Palumbo A. 13. Bani M. 32. Ceccaroni P. 27. Pierozzi N. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 11. Gyasi E. 9. Brunori M. (C) 20. Pohjanpalo J.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 24. Dickmann L. 23. Vicari F. (C) 43. Nikolaou D. 93. Dorval M. 27. Braunoder M. 29. Verreth M. 4. Castrovilli G. 5. Darboe E. 7. Sibilli G. 11. Moncini G.
Substitutes
30. Avella M. (G) 28. Blin A. 31. Corona G. 23. Diakite S. 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 21. Le Douaron J. 29. Peda P. 77. Pizzuto S. (G) 14. Vasic A. 72. Veroli D.	16. Antonucci M. 10. Bellomo N. 3. Burgio R. 99. Cerri L. 9. Gytkjaer C. 18. Maggiore G. 13. Meroni A. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 17. Rao E.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Caserta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Darboe E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', Darboe E. ↓, Pagano R. ↑,
59', Moncini G. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
68', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
72', Brunori M. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
72', Gyasi E. ↓, Diakite S. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Le Douaron J. ⚽,
81', Verreth M. 🟨,
82', Ranocchia F. ↓, Blin A. ↑,
82', Segre J. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
83', Castrovilli G. ↓, Antonucci M. ↑,
83', Braunoder M. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
90', Dorval M. ↓, Rao E. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 0, Gomes C. ⚽, Pohjanpalo J. (A),
90+5', Nikolaou D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 3.

Palermo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bari has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Palermo: Bardi F. (Inactive) Gomis A. (Arm Injury)

There will not play in Bari: Cerri L. (Inactive) Gytkjaer C. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:10. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.3:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
14.09.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Palermo	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Palermo - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Palermo - Reggiana	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.25	Cremonese - Palermo	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Palermo - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTWWL
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
13.09.25	Modena - Bari	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Bari - Monza	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Venezia - Bari	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Milan - Bari	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Bari - Picerno	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
11.04.25	Bari - Palermo	2:1
26.12.24	Palermo - Bari	1:0
02.02.24	Palermo - Bari	3:0
18.08.23	Bari - Palermo	0:0
20.01.23	Palermo - Bari	1:0
19.08.22	Bari - Palermo	1:1
Italian Serie C Group C
24.04.22	Bari - Palermo	0:2

Upcoming Matches