Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Panadería Pulido		Mensajero

	1	X	2
	2.32	3	2.88
	2.14	3.09	3.43	Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.9
	2.47	2.81	2.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.94)	2.93 ↓ (3.3)	3.04 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panadería Pulido
38.9%

Draw
31.1%

Mensajero
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

27.5%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26.3%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panadería Pulido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Panadería Pulido's form might have worsened.

Mensajero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panadería Pulido than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Panadería Pulido, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mensajero than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mensajero, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Panadería Pulido - Mensajero Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
67', 2 - 1, ⚽,
82', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+1', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 12 (Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 12 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Panadería won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Panadería may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Panadería is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Panadería won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Panadería won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mensajero	4	3	0	1	4:2	2	9
8	Panaderia	4	2	1	1	10:8	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Panadería Pulido
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
14.02.26	Tenerife C - Panadería Pulido	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Panadería Pulido - San Bartolomé	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Panadería Pulido - Arucas	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Villa de Santa Brígida - Panadería Pulido	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Panadería Pulido - Tenisca	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTWTW
- CD Mensajero
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
12.02.26	Mensajero - Telde	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Marino - Mensajero	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Mensajero - Lanzarote	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Mensajero - Tenerife C	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	San Bartolomé - Mensajero	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
12.10.25	Mensajero - Panadería Pulido	2:0
09.03.25	Mensajero - Panadería Pulido	2:3
26.10.24	Panadería Pulido - Mensajero	2:0
02.04.23	Mensajero - Panadería Pulido	3:0
03.12.22	Panadería Pulido - Mensajero	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
10.04.22	Mensajero - Panadería Pulido	3:1
18.01.22	Panadería Pulido - Mensajero	2:2

Panadería Pulido - Mensajero: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide