Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Limassol)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paphos		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.8	1.95
	3.3	3.7	2
	3.5	4	2
	3.55	3.87	2.04
	2.77	3.64	2.34	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2
	3.46	3.86	1.98
	2.85	3.65	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.9)	3.74 ↑ (3.59)	2.08 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
29.1%

Draw
25.4%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

26.7%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

27.6%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.1%	13.5%	67.4%

Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Users Predictions: 88 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 17 - 19.3%). Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 59 - 67%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crvena Zvezda: 57.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Crvena Zvezda (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - Paphos (1.82) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1 - Crvena Zvezda (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Paphos (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (32 of 42 users predict this - 76.19%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 49 Selected Experts predict this event. Paphos (votes: 7 - 14.3%). Crvena Zvezda (votes: 37 - 75.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 10.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Michail N. (G) 77. Correia J. 5. Goldar D. (C) 23. Luckassen D. 2. Pileas K. 88. Pepe 26. Sunjic I. 17. Orsic M. 30. Dragomir V. 7. Bruno 33. Anderson Silva	1. Matheus (G) 66. Seol Young-Woo 44. Milosavljevic V. 13. Veljkovic M. 23. Tiknizyan N. 21. Elsnik T. 33. Krunic R. 80. Babicka S. 17. Bruno Duarte 4. Ivanic M. (C) 9. Ndiaye C.
Substitutes
9. Bassouamina M. 11. Jaja 25. Langa B. 99. Papadoudis A. (G) 35. Pedrao 82. Petrou P. (G) 8. Quina D. 12. Sema K. 22. Tankovic M.	89. Arnautovic M. 6. Bajo M. 18. Glazer O. (G) 77. Gutesa I. (G) 10. Katai A. 22. Kostov V. 7. Milson 14. Olayinka P. 49. Radonjic N. 5. Rodrigo 24. Stankovic N. 30. Tebo Uchenna F.
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Milojevic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Krunic R. 🟨,
33', Veljkovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Babicka S. 🟨,
56', Babicka S. ↓, Radonjic N. ↑,
56', Bruno Duarte ↓, Arnautovic M. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Ivanic M. ⚽, Ndiaye C. (A),
62', Pileas K. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
62', Orsic M. ↓, Jaja ↑,
68', Anderson Silva ↓, Bassouamina M. ↑,
79', Jaja 🟨,
86', Bruno 🟨,
89', Carcedo J. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Jaja ⚽, Pepe (A),
90+1', Ivanic M. ↓, Olayinka P. ↑,
90+1', Elsnik T. ↓, Katai A. ↑,
90+4', Bruno ↓, Pedrao ↑,
90+7', Tiknizyan N. 🟨,
90+9', Pepe 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.

Paphos has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Crvena Zvezda is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paphos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Crvena Zvezda is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Paphos: David Luiz (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Paphos: Correia J. (Injury) Tankovic M. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paphos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos	1:2 ✺
12.08.25	Paphos - Dynamo Kyiv	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Dynamo Kyiv - Paphos	0:1 ✺
30.07.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Paphos	0:1 ✺
22.07.25	Paphos - Maccabi Tel Aviv	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.7 WWWWT
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos	1:2 ✺
Serbian Superliga
15.08.25	Mladost Lučani - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
09.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Bačka Topola	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.08.25	Lech Poznań - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos	1:2

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