Match Info

Paraense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)


	Paysandu		Águia de Marabá

	1	X	2
	1.31	4.2	9.5
	1.29	4.8	11
	1.29	4.59	10.45	Watch
	1.25	4.75	11.2
	1.29	4.8	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.32)	4.63 ↑ (4.25)	10.63 ↑ (9.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
71.5%

Draw
19.9%

Águia de Marabá
8.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.9%

21.4%

9.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9%

20.2%

9.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Águia de Marabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Águia de Marabá than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Paysandu - Águia de Marabá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 24. Borasi B. 21. Bryan 28. Leandro Vilela 20. Marlon Douglas 96. Matheus Vargas 11. Nicolas (C) 94. Patric Calmon 3. Quintana Y. 27. Ramon Martinez 77. Rossi	1. Bernardes Lopes A. (G) 6. Alan Pires 2. Bruno Limao 18. Erico Junior 3. Gomes L. 8. Janderson 13. Jonata Bastos 14. Kukri 15. Matheus Baraka 7. Silva L. 16. Taboca L.
Substitutes
8. Andre Lima 9. Benitez J. 32. Cavalleri M. 17. Delvalle P. 15. Dudu Vieira 2. Edilson 6. Espinoza J. 10. Giovanni 31. Iago Hass (G) 4. Luan Freitas 30. Marcelinho 16. Reverson	21. Biel Potiguar 4. Carlos Alberto 9. Daniel 11. Jeffinho 12. Jerfesson (G) 19. Kaique 17. Reidiner Cairu 22. Samuel 20. Welves

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Nicolas ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Kukri ⚽,
33', 2 - 1, Rossi ⚽,
40', Bruno Limao 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Rossi 🟨,
65', Borasi B. ↓, Delvalle P. ↑,
65', Bryan ↓, Edilson ↑,
73', Matheus Vargas ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
73', Rossi ↓, Giovanni ↑,
74', Nicolas ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
77', Lucas Silva ↓, Doda ↑,
77', Jonata Bastos ↓, Daniel GTA ↑,
77', Kukri ↓, Samuel ↑,
87', Janderson ↓, Welves ↑,
90', Patric Calmon 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 1, Benitez J. ⚽,
90+7', Matheus Baraka 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 3.

Paysandu in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Águia de Marabá is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Paysandu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Paysandu is absolute favorite.

Our prediction for today's Paysandu to win the game is with odds 1.3.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Paysandu won 11 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 28:9 (average 2:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Paysandu won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:3 (average 1.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
28.03.25	Paysandu - Capitão Poço	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
19.03.25	Paysandu - São Raimundo PR	3:0 ✺
12.03.25	São Raimundo PR - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
02.03.25	Paysandu - Castanhal	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
26.02.25	Manaus - Paysandu	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWTWW
- Águia de Marabá
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
29.03.25	Bragantino do Pará - Águia de Marabá	0:1 penalties ✺
02.03.25	Bragantino do Pará - Águia de Marabá	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	Águia de Marabá - Fluminense	0:8 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
22.02.25	Águia de Marabá - Independente	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Águia de Marabá - Caeté	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
25.01.25	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	2:4
30.03.24	Paysandu - Águia de Marabá	4:0
27.03.24	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	1:1
27.01.24	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	0:3
29.04.23	Paysandu - Águia de Marabá	1:3 penalties
22.04.23	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	0:1
30.03.22	Paysandu - Águia de Marabá	2:0

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