Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 15

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday


	Peniche		Alverca B

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.25	5
	1.65	3.35	5
	1.72	3.3	5.14
	1.64	3.35	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.45)	3.31 ↓ (3.86)	5.09 ↓ (6.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peniche
54.7%

Draw
27.4%

Alverca B
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

23.5%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

22.1%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peniche's form might have worsened.

Alverca B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peniche, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca B than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Peniche - Alverca B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Diop A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 🟥,
53', 2 - 0, Baiao R. ⚽,
55', 🟥,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
12.01.25	Sertanense - Peniche	1:1 ✺
05.01.25	União de Coimbra - Peniche	0:4 ✺
15.12.24	Peniche - Marinhense	2:0 ✺
08.12.24	Pombal - Peniche	2:2 ✺
30.11.24	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWTW
- Alverca B
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
12.01.25	Alverca B - SB Castelo Branco	1:2 ✺
05.01.25	Alverca B - Alcains	1:0 ✺
15.12.24	Os Marialvas - Alverca B	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Alverca B - Mortágua	1:2 ✺
30.11.24	Arronches Benfica - Alverca B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
25.08.24	Alverca B - Peniche	0:0
04.02.24	Peniche - Alverca B	0:2
01.10.23	Alverca B - Peniche	7:0

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