Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 11

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco)


	SB Castelo Branco		Peniche

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.05	3.5
	1.81	3.16	4.15
	2.06	3.03	3.61	Watch
	2.05	3.05	3.5
	1.8	3.14	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.08)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	3.79 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SB Castelo Branco
46.7%

Draw
29.4%

Peniche
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

29%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

28.3%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

SB Castelo Branco - Peniche Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
13', 2 - 0, ⚽,
25', 3 - 0, ⚽,
40', 4 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
74', 5 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SB Castelo Branco won 2.

In recent matches, SB Castelo Branco has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Peniche is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

SB Castelo Branco might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, SB Castelo Branco won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, SB Castelo Branco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - SB Castelo Branco	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	SB Castelo Branco - Marinhense	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	SC Lusitânia - SB Castelo Branco	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	SB Castelo Branco - União da Serra	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	1 Dezembro - SB Castelo Branco	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWWL
- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.11.25	Peniche - Eléctrico	0:3 ✺
16.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - Peniche	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Peniche - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Naval - Peniche	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
16.03.25	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	1:1
30.11.24	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	0:1
07.04.24	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	2:0
17.12.23	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.01.22	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	0:1
24.10.21	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	1:1
03.03.19	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	1:1

SB Castelo Branco - Peniche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide