Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadionul Zimbru (Chişinău) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Redder M. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 15
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect
Moldova	22:00	W Sport
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 1, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus
International	19:00	Disney+


	Petrocub-Hîncești		Paphos

	1	X	2
	6	4.33	1.5
	5.5	3.9	1.52
	6	4.2	1.52
	6	4.09	1.53
	5.73	4.22	1.53	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.2
	6.41	4.28	1.55
	6	4.2	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.56 ↑ (3.83)	4.06 ↑ (3.54)	1.61 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Petrocub-Hîncești
17.2%

Draw
23.5%

Paphos
59.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.4%

26.4%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

25.7%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Petrocub-Hîncești has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Petrocub-Hîncești's form might have worsened.

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paphos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Petrocub-Hîncești than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Petrocub-Hîncești, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paphos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	7.7%	76.9%

Petrocub Hîncești - Paphos Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Petrocub will win (votes: 6 - 15.4%). Paphos will win (votes: 30 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paphos: 63.7% – 90.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smalenea S. (G) 90. Jardan I. 66. Bors I. 55. Agyemang M. N. 11. Platica S. 20. Douanla D. M. 9. Ambros V. (C) 37. Puscas D. 39. Lungu T. 22. Caruntu M. 23. Lupan M.	1. Ivusic I. (G) 77. Correia J. 23. Luckassen D. 5. Goldar D. 19. Silva J. 26. Sunjic I. 11. Jaja 22. Tankovic M. 30. Dragomir V. 7. Bruno 10. Jairo (C)
Substitutes
32. Covali D. (G) 8. Demian D. 6. Diallo B. 31. Dodon V. (G) 14. Guilherme Matheus 30. Jardan V. 5. Narh G. 17. Nikhaev V.	33. Anderson Silva 70. Ilia M. 9. Leo Natel 93. Michail N. (G) 25. Name M. 88. Pepe 2. Pileas K. 8. Quina D. 45. Rafael Pontelo 83. Theodoulou P. (G)
Coaches
Martin A.	Carcedo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
26', 1 - 0, Lungu T. (Pen),
33', 1 - 1, Correia J. ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, Jaja ⚽, Sunjic I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', 1 - 3, Correia J. ⚽, Silva J. (A),
54', Agyemang M. N. ↓, Jardan V. ↑,
60', Jaja ↓, Quina D. ↑,
60', Jairo ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
63', Caruntu M. ↓, Nikhaev V. ↑,
63', Ambros V. ↓, Demian D. ↑,
70', Correia J. ↓, Name M. ↑,
76', Bors I. ↓, Diallo B. ↑,
76', Puscas D. ↓, Guilherme Matheus ↑,
82', 1 - 4, Name M. ⚽, Tankovic M. (A),
85', Sunjic I. ↓, Leo Natel ↑,
85', Tankovic M. ↓, Ilia M. ↑,
87', Name M. 🟨,
87', Jardan I. 🟨,
90+3', Silva J. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadionul Zimbru.

Recent matches Petrocub is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Paphos is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Petrocub could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Petrocub have a series of home games.

In this match Paphos is a favorite.

There will not play in Petrocub: Mudrac V. (Red Card)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Petrocub-Hîncești
Moldovan Super Liga
28.09.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - Milsami Orhei	2:1 ✺
22.09.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - Zimbru Chişinău	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	Bălți - Petrocub-Hîncești	2:1 ✺
01.09.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - Sparta Selemet	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.08.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WTLTL
- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
29.09.24	Paphos - Aris Limassol	1:1 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
25.09.24	APOEL - Paphos	1:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
22.09.24	AEL Limassol - Paphos	1:3 ✺
18.09.24	Paphos - Nea Salamis	4:0 ✺
14.09.24	Paphos - Anorthosis	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWWW

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