Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Peña Balsamaiso		Agoncillo

	1	X	2
	5.3	3.95	1.5
	13.83	7.17	1.15	Watch
	6.19	4	1.45
	3.95	3.8	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.32 ↑ (3.95)	4.73 ↑ (3.8)	1.46 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peña Balsamaiso
13.2%

Draw
20.4%

Agoncillo
66.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

24%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

23.5%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peña Balsamaiso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peña Balsamaiso's form might have worsened.

Agoncillo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Agoncillo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Balsamaiso than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peña Balsamaiso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Agoncillo than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Agoncillo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Peña Balsamaiso - Agoncillo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Alvarez M. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 0 - 2, ⚽,
64', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Peña Balsamaiso has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Agoncillo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Peña Balsamaiso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Agoncillo is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Peña Balsamaiso won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Peña Balsamaiso won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peña Balsamaiso
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
15.11.25	Villegas - Peña Balsamaiso	3:2 ✺
09.11.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Calahorra	0:7 ✺
02.11.25	Comillas - Peña Balsamaiso	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Vianés	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Arnedo - Peña Balsamaiso	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- CD Agoncillo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
15.11.25	Agoncillo - Autol	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Berceo - Agoncillo	1:6 ✺
01.11.25	Agoncillo - UD Logroñés Promesas	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Oyonesa - Agoncillo	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Anguiano - Agoncillo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
02.02.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Agoncillo	0:1
11.02.23	Agoncillo - Peña Balsamaiso	2:0
09.10.22	Peña Balsamaiso - Agoncillo	0:1

Peña Balsamaiso - Agoncillo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide