Match Info

SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 3 - Round 28

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday


	Peña Deportiva		Lleida

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.3
	3.35	3.1	2.1
	3.3	3.08	2.2
	3.35	3.1	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↓ (3.8)	3.07 ↑ (3.03)	2.18 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peña Deportiva
28.5%

Draw
29.7%

Lleida
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

30.2%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

29.2%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peña Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Lleida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peña Deportiva than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peña Deportiva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lleida than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lleida could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peña Deportiva - Lleida Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Peña Deportiva won 0.

Peña Deportiva is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lleida is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lleida will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Peña Deportiva won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7:14 (average 0.7:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Peña Deportiva won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peña Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
16.03.25	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas - Peña Deportiva	2:1 ✺
09.03.25	Peña Deportiva - Andratx	1:3 ✺
02.03.25	Espanyol B - Peña Deportiva	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Peña Deportiva - Torrent	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Valencia B - Peña Deportiva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTTL
- Lleida
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
16.03.25	Lleida - CE Europa	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Mallorca B - Lleida	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Lleida - Elche Ilicitano	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Alzira - Lleida	1:4 ✺
16.02.25	Lleida - Olot	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
10.11.24	Lleida - Peña Deportiva	3:0
18.02.24	Peña Deportiva - Lleida	1:3
08.10.23	Lleida - Peña Deportiva	3:2
12.02.23	Peña Deportiva - Lleida	0:0
25.09.22	Lleida - Peña Deportiva	0:0
17.04.22	Lleida - Peña Deportiva	1:1
28.11.21	Peña Deportiva - Lleida	2:1

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