Match Info

Challenge League - Round 15

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: The Sirens Stadium (St. Paul's Bay)


	Pietà Hotspurs		Żurrieq

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.35	3.55	Watch
	1.87	3.46	3.53
	1.88	3.57	3.58	Watch
	1.8	3.4	3.5
	1.79	3.83	3.83
	1.84	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.63)	3.5 ↓ (3.8)	3.57 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pietà Hotspurs
49%

Draw
25.7%

Żurrieq
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

23.9%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

22.8%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pietà Hotspurs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pietà Hotspurs's form might have worsened.

Żurrieq has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Żurrieq's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pietà Hotspurs than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pietà Hotspurs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Żurrieq than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Żurrieq, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pietà Hotspurs - Żurrieq Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Arthur (Penalty Awarded),
34', 2 - 0, Magro O. ⚽,
40', 3 - 0, Magro O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 3 - 1, Aquilina G. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 12 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

Pietà Hotspurs is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Żurrieq has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Pietà Hotspurs is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pietà Hotspurs won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Pietà Hotspurs won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Pieta	2	1	0	1	5:5	0	3
14	Zurrieq	2	0	0	2	1:3	-2	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pietà Hotspurs
Maltese Challenge League
08.02.26	Mtarfa - Pietà Hotspurs	0:6 ✺
31.01.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Gudja United	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Fgura United	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Sirens - Pietà Hotspurs	4:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Mtarfa	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWLW
- Żurrieq FC
Maltese Challenge League
07.02.26	Sirens - Żurrieq	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Żurrieq - Mġarr United	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
27.01.26	Żurrieq - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
18.01.26	Swieqi United - Żurrieq	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Żurrieq - Mtarfa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
13.04.25	Żurrieq - Pietà Hotspurs	1:1
22.09.24	Pietà Hotspurs - Żurrieq	1:2
16.03.24	Żurrieq - Pietà Hotspurs	3:0
10.02.24	Pietà Hotspurs - Żurrieq	2:0
03.02.24	Pietà Hotspurs - Żurrieq	2:0

Pietà Hotspurs - Żurrieq: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide