Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished


	Pirata		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.2	2.15
	2.70	3.20	2.28
	3.02	3.28	2.12
	2.68	3.48	2.44	Watch
	2.85	3.20	2.03
	2.94	3.25	2.17
	3.00	3.25	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.55)	3.27 ↑ (3.2)	2.2 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pirata
31.4%

Draw
27.6%

Unión Comercio
41%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.2%

28.1%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

28%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pirata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pirata than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Pirata - Unión Comercio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Quiroz R. (G) 18. Aliaga R. 30. Butron F. 4. Canova J. 7. Cordara B. 3. Diez Canseco P. 5. Hoyos H. (C) 10. Lugo K. 19. Morales M. 22. Rodriguez A. 20. Santos S.	12. Amasifuen S. (G) 5. Alvarez E. 99. Goluz Pena B. 21. Gomez R. 10. Guerrero G. (C) 24. Javier Navea 25. Paucar E. 31. Pinedo A. 97. Serra P. 7. Vargas C. 17. Vargas D.
Substitutes
8. Carbajal J. 11. Cerutti R. 25. Chirinos A. 14. Fernandez F. 24. Larrea F. (G) 2. Ledesma A. 6. Navarro J. 32. Suclupe M. 17. Tapia D.	18. Ayala J. 30. Calero A. 11. Carranza M. 34. Cruz E. 19. Delgado G. 28. Garcia L. (G) 23. Mimbela W. 3. Peralta M. 15. Vargas C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Javier Navea 🟨,
19', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Rodriguez A. ↓, Carbajal J. ↑,
68', Vargas C. ↓, Carranza M. ↑,
68', Guerrero G. ↓, Mimbela W. ↑,
68', Gomez R. ↓, Cruz E. ↑,
77', Santos S. 🟨,
77', Goluz Pena B. 🟨,
79', Pinedo A. ↓, Ayala J. ↑,
80', Vargas D. ↓, Delgado G. ↑,
80', Hoyos H. 🟨,
83', Paucar E. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 0, Butron F. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Pirata has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:13 (averaging 1:2.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pirata against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pirata FC
Peruvian Liga 2
17.10.26	Unión Minas - Pirata	4:0 ✺
12.10.26	Pirata - Unión Minas	1:0 ✺
06.10.26	Pirata - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Unión Comercio - Pirata	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Llacuabamba - Pirata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWWLT
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
18.10.26	Ayacucho - Unión Comercio	1:1 ✺
12.10.26	Unión Comercio - Ayacucho	5:0 ✺
06.10.26	Unión Minas - Unión Comercio	4:1 ✺
27.09.26	Unión Comercio - Pirata	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	ADA Jaén - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
27.09.26	Unión Comercio - Pirata	2:0
03.05.26	Unión Comercio - Pirata	1:2
24.07.22	Unión Comercio - Pirata	4:1
23.04.22	Pirata - Unión Comercio	0:2
10.08.21	Unión Comercio - Pirata	4:2

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