Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday


	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński		Warta Sieradz

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.30	1.88
	3.60	3.40	1.81
	3.62	3.78	1.84
	3.83	3.84	1.75	Watch
	3.55	3.35	1.82
	3.19	3.71	2.01	Watch
	3.33	3.51	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (3.33)	3.56 ↑ (3.51)	1.85 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński
25.7%

Draw
25.4%

Warta Sieradz
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

25.2%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

24.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Warta Sieradz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Warta Sieradz than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Warta Sieradz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Kozera D. ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, Swedrowski T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 2, Pietrzak S. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 10).

Lidzbark Warmiński has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Warta Sieradz has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Warta Sieradz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Warta Sieradz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lidzbark Warmiński won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lidzbark Warmiński won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Warta Sieradz	10	4	3	3	18:16	2	15
16	Lidzbark Warminski	11	2	3	6	16:22	-6	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński
Polish Division 3 - Group I
06.09.26	Wigry Suwałki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Widzew Łódź II - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	4:1 ✺
07.08.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	4:2 ✺
01.08.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTLLL
- Warta Sieradz
Polish Division 3 - Group I
04.09.26	Warta Sieradz - Olimpia Elbląg	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Warta Sieradz	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Warta Sieradz - Ząbkovia Ząbki	0:4 ✺
19.08.26	Troszyn - Warta Sieradz	1:4 ✺
15.08.26	Warta Sieradz - Jagiellonia II Białystok	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
30.04.25	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Warta Sieradz	2:1
10.08.24	Warta Sieradz - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	2:2

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