Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 5

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday


	Portugalete		Deusto

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.75	5.7
	1.52	3.68	5.81
	1.14	6.90	17.59	Watch
	1.48	3.88	6.06
	1.34	4.4	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.38)	4.52 ↑ (4.24)	8.63 ↑ (7.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portugalete
68%

Draw
21%

Deusto
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.8%

21.4%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

20.4%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Deusto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deusto than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Portugalete - Deusto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Portugalete (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Portugalete (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Portugalete (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Cuello Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
84', 🟥,
88', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 2.

Portugalete has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Deusto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Deusto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Portugalete is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:11. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Portugalete won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
21.09.25	San Ignacio - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Portugalete - Derio	3:2 ✺
06.09.25	Touring KE - Portugalete	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
17.08.25	Portugalete - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Real Unión de Irun - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWLT
- SD Deusto
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
27.09.25	Deusto - San Ignacio	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Derio - Deusto	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Deusto - Touring KE	0:3 ✺
07.09.25	Alavés C - Deusto	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Deusto - Sestao	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
24.05.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:0
17.05.25	Deusto - Portugalete	1:1
06.04.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:1
23.11.24	Deusto - Portugalete	0:2
05.05.24	Portugalete - Deusto	0:1
14.01.24	Deusto - Portugalete	2:2
25.02.23	Deusto - Portugalete	0:0

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