Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 33

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday


	Prato		Progresso

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.3	3.5
	1.86	3.5	3.65
	1.91	3.46	3.4
	1.94	3.41	3.6
	1.87	3.64	3.84
	1.86	3.5	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.48)	3.47 ↑ (3.08)	3.61 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Prato
48.4%

Draw
26.3%

Progresso
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

29.3%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

28.6%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Prato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Prato's performance.

Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Progresso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Prato than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Prato that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Progresso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Prato - Progresso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 0 - 1, Maltoni E. ⚽,
74', 0 - 2, Pinelli M. ⚽,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 8 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Prato won 2.

Recent matches Prato is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Progresso is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Progresso could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Prato won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Prato won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Prato
Italian Serie D - Group D
17.04.25	Corticella - Prato	0:3 ✺
13.04.25	Prato - Cittadella Vis Modena	1:3 ✺
06.04.25	Zenith Prato - Prato	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Prato - Tau Altopascio	0:2 ✺
23.03.25	United Riccione - Prato	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTLW
- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
17.04.25	Progresso - Sammaurese	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Lentigione - Progresso	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Cittadella Vis Modena - Progresso	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Progresso - Fiorenzuola	1:2 ✺
23.03.25	Tau Altopascio - Progresso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
15.12.24	Progresso - Prato	0:0
04.02.24	Prato - Progresso	1:0
14.04.22	Prato - Progresso	1:1
04.12.21	Progresso - Prato	3:1
28.02.21	Progresso - Prato	0:2
11.10.20	Prato - Progresso	1:1

Prato - Progresso: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide