Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 17

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Sokoine Stadium (Mbeya)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1


	Prisons		Namungo

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.52	2.72
	2.94	2.45	2.81
	2.96	2.5	2.86	Watch
	2.8	2.45	2.75
	2.92	2.48	2.73	Watch
	2.9	2.45	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.49)	2.48 ↓ (2.79)	2.78 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Prisons
31.2%

Draw
36.4%

Namungo
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

32.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

33.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Prisons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Namungo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Prisons than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Prisons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Namungo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Prisons - Namungo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Mussa M. (G) 27. Chanongo H. 10. Juma J. 14. Kimenya S. 2. Lulihoshi H. 30. Lunkombi G. 47. Mhilu M. 28. Mpole G. 15. Mutinda M. 24. Ojwang M. 26. Sabiyanka L.	43. Malik M. (G) 6. Jigwa 60. Kazi H. 10. Kipenye C. 50. Kiswanya A. 26. Luzendaze G. 14. Machela J. 24. Masawe J. (C) 5. Mfuko A. 29. Ngoye F. 12. Swalehe H.
Substitutes
. Kaboma N. . Lugendo I. . Mbangula S. . Mwajanga O. . Mwakyusa E. (G) . Mwenda R. . Ochu O. . Onyango H. . Ramadhan D. . Sadoki W.	3. Buswita P. 21. Chamungu A. 8. Kikoti L. 30. Lukindo H. 19. Makambo H. 7. Manyanya H. 20. Mgunya H. 53. Rajabu K. 18. Suleiman A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
38', 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, ⚽,
42', 🟨,
43', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 1 - 2, ⚽,
70', 🟨,
71', (Penalty Awarded),
72', 2 - 2, ⚽,
80', 3 - 2, ⚽,
89', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Prisons won 1.

Recent form of Prisons has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Namungo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Namungo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Prisons won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Prisons won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Namungo	7	2	0	5	6:11	-5	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tanzania Prisons FC
Tanzanian Premier League
10.02.26	Prisons - Coastal Union	1:4 ✺
06.02.26	Prisons - Mashujaa	0:0 ✺
02.02.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Prisons	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Prisons - JKT Tanzania	0:0 ✺
22.01.26	Dodoma Jiji - Prisons	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLTL
- Namungo FC
Tanzanian Premier League
10.02.26	Pamba - Namungo	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Namungo	1:1 ✺
04.02.26	Singida Fountain Gate - Namungo	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Namungo - Kinondoni MC	1:0 ✺
23.01.26	Namungo - Coastal Union	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Tanzanian Premier League
21.09.25	Namungo - Prisons	1:0
14.02.25	Prisons - Namungo	0:1
28.09.24	Namungo - Prisons	1:0
25.05.24	Namungo - Prisons	2:2
21.12.23	Prisons - Namungo	1:0
11.03.23	Namungo - Prisons	2:3
29.10.22	Prisons - Namungo	1:1

Upcoming Matches