Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 22

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Sokoine Stadium (Mbeya)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1


	Prisons		TRA United

	1	X	2
	2.61	3.06	2.5
	2.63	3.19	2.54	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.6
	2.65	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.61)	3.04 ↑ (2.97)	2.54 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Prisons
34.5%

Draw
29.8%

TRA United
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

30.3%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Prisons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

TRA United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Prisons aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TRA United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Prisons - TRA United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Prisons is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, TRA United has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

TRA United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Prisons won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Prisons won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	TRA United	6	1	3	2	6:6	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tanzania Prisons FC
Tanzanian Premier League
14.04.26	Kinondoni MC - Prisons	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Young Africans - Prisons	3:0 ✺
18.03.26	Prisons - Singida Black Stars	1:2 ✺
12.03.26	Prisons - Young Africans	0:1 ✺
05.03.26	Prisons - Azam	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TLLLT
- TRA United
Tanzanian Premier League
17.04.26	TRA United - Pamba	1:0 ✺
Tanzanian Federation Cup
12.04.26	Namungo - TRA United	0:2 ✺
Tanzanian Premier League
09.04.26	TRA United - Simba	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	TRA United - Singida Black Stars	1:3 ✺
22.03.26	Simba - TRA United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Tanzanian Premier League
22.11.25	TRA United - Prisons	1:0
21.02.25	Prisons - TRA United	1:1
14.09.24	TRA United - Prisons	0:0
28.02.24	Prisons - TRA United	2:1
15.09.23	TRA United - Prisons	3:1

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