Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 27 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Qarabağ Agdam		Ferencvárosi

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.25
	2.25	3.5	2.9
	2.15	3.75	3.2
	2.2	3.75	3.31
	2.52	3.36	2.71	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.9
	2.16	3.73	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.35)	3.57 ↓ (3.6)	3.07 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
42.5%

Draw
26.6%

Ferencvárosi
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

26.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

25.9%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Ferencvárosi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferencvárosi than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.6%	26.4%	17%

Qarabağ Agdam - Ferencvárosi Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Qarabağ will win (votes: 29 - 56.9%). Ferencvárosi will win (votes: 9 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 25.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qarabağ: 43.3% – 70.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Qarabağ (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Ferencvárosi (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kochalski M. (G) 2. Matheus Silva 13. Mustafazada B. 81. Medina K. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 35. Pedro Bicalho 8. Jankovic M. 15. Leandro Andrade 20. Kady Borges 10. Zoubir A. (C) 90. Akhundzade N.	90. Dibusz D. (C) 25. Makreckis C. 27. Cisse I. 28. Raemaekers T. 47. O'Dowda C. 23. Otvos B. 5. Keita N. 75. Joseph L. 36. Kanichowsky G. 10. Levi J. 19. Varga B.
Substitutes
11. Addai E. 27. Bayramov T. 97. Buntic F. (G) 6. Chriso 18. Dani Bolt 30. Huseynov A. 55. Huseynov B. 32. Jabrayilzade H. 21. Kashchuk O. 1. Mahammadaliyev S. (G) 3. Mmaee S. 22. Qurbanly M.	7. Arzani D. 21. Botka E. 33. Cadu 3. Gartenmann S. 99. Grof D. (G) 30. Gruber Z. 57. Madarasz A. 77. Nagy B. 8. Pesic A. 22. Szalai G. 64. Toth A. 16. Zachariassen K.
Coaches
Qurbanov Q.	Keane R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Joseph L. ⚽, Varga B. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Leandro Andrade ⚽, Akhundzade N. (A),
37', Pedro Bicalho 🟨,
42', Kanichowsky G. 🟨,
45', 2 - 1, Zoubir A. ⚽, Leandro Andrade (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Levi J. ↓, Cadu ↑,
46', Otvos B. ↓, Pesic A. ↑,
53', Medina K. 🟨,
55', 2 - 2, Varga B. (Pen),
56', Keita N. 🟨,
69', Leandro Andrade ↓, Addai E. ↑,
69', O'Dowda C. ↓, Nagy B. ↑,
73', Keita N. ↓, Toth A. ↑,
73', Joseph L. ↓, Gruber Z. ↑,
81', Matheus Silva 🟨,
81', 2 - 3, Toth A. ⚽,
84', Cafarquliyev E. ↓, Bayramov T. ↑,
85', Zoubir A. ↓, Chriso ↑,
90', Cisse I. 🟨,
90+4', Akhundzade N. ↓, Qurbanly M. ↑,
90+5', Kady Borges ↓, Kashchuk O. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 3-1. 2nd leg.

Qarabağ is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ferencvárosi has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ferencvárosi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Qarabağ will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Qarabağ: Isayev A. (Inactive) Montiel J. (Thigh Injury) Ramazanov A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ferencvárosi: Abu Fani M. (Inactive) Lisztes K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Ferencvárosi: Otvos B. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Qarabağ won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Qarabağ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.08.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Sumgayit	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3 ✺
12.08.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Shkendija Tetovo	5:1 ✺
05.08.25	Shkendija Tetovo - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
30.07.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Shelbourne	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LWWWW
- Ferencvárosi TC
UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3 ✺
Hungarian NB I
16.08.25	Ferencvárosi - Puskás Academy	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Ferencvárosi - Ludogorets Razgrad	3:0 ✺
Hungarian NB I
09.08.25	Nyíregyháza Spartacus - Ferencvárosi	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.08.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Ferencvárosi	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3
Club Friendly
27.06.23	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	3:3
UEFA Champions League
09.08.22	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3
03.08.22	Qarabağ Agdam - Ferencvárosi	1:1

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