Match Info

Date: 12 July 2022, Tuesday

Location: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)


	Qarabağ Agdam		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.9
	2.05	3.3	3.8
	2.02	3.35	3.75
	1.85	3.4	3.9
	2.03	3.43	3.82
	1.85	3.2	4.2
	2	3.28	3.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.07)	3.34 ↑ (3.3)	3.88 (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
47.7%

Draw
28.1%

Lech Poznań
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

29%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

30.6%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.5%	9.8%	10.7%

Qarabağ Agdam - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: Qarabağ Agdam will win (89 of 112 users predict this - 79.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.98% – 86.94%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium. 1st leg result: 0-1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Qarabağ could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Lech have a series of home games.

In this match Qarabağ is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
UEFA Champions League
05.07.22	Lech Poznań - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.06.22	Universitatea Craiova - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
29.06.22	Holstein Kiel - Qarabağ Agdam	2:2 ✺
25.06.22	Qarabağ Agdam - Botoșani	4:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
27.05.22	Qarabağ Agdam - Zira	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTTWW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Super Cup
09.07.22	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.07.22	Lech Poznań - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
28.06.22	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
23.06.22	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
18.06.22	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
05.07.22	Lech Poznań - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0

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