Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Azersun Arena (Baku)

Referee: Ahmadov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Qarabağ Agdam		Zira

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	3.6	5.5
	1.5	3.65	5.7
	1.52	3.88	6.42
	1.67	3.41	5.27	Watch
	1.49	3.6	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.45)	3.63 ↓ (3.84)	5.91 ↓ (6.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
59.3%

Draw
25.2%

Zira
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

23.6%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

23.3%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Zira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zira than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Qarabağ Agdam - Zira Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Zira (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zira (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kochalski M. (G) 27. Bayramov T. 17. Duran C. 8. Jankovic M. 20. Kady Borges 15. Leandro Andrade 2. Matheus Silva 81. Medina K. 3. Mmaee S. 35. Pedro Bicalho 10. Zoubir A. (C)	97. Tiago Silva (G) 26. Acka S. 32. Aliyev Q. 77. Bogomolskiy E. 17. Gomis I. 21. Hacyly H. 93. Konate B. 11. Martins Junior 10. Papunashvili G. 4. Ruan Renato 9. Volkovi D.
Substitutes
11. Addai E. 97. Buntic F. (G) 32. Cabrayilzada H. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 6. Chriso 18. Dani Bolt 30. Huseynov A. 55. Huseynov B. 21. Kashchuk O. 1. Mahammadaliyev S. (G) 13. Mustafazada B. 22. Qurbanly M.	70. Alasgarov N. 14. Alicanov E. 13. Bayramov A. (G) 20. Djibrilla I. 30. Guima 25. Henrique Gelain 8. Ibrahimli I. 6. Kuliyev E. 28. Mickels L. 5. Mutsinzi A. 41. Nazirov A. (G) 29. Nuriyev C.
Coaches
Qurbanov Q.	Sadiqov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Ruan Renato (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Bogomolskiy E. 🟨,
63', Martins Junior ↓, Djibrilla I. ↑,
63', Bogomolskiy E. ↓, Guima ↑,
69', Matheus Silva ↓, Dani Bolt ↑,
75', Jankovic M. 🟨,
78', Djibrilla I. 🟨,
78', Leandro Andrade ↓, Kashchuk O. ↑,
78', Jankovic M. ↓, Addai E. ↑,
79', Volkovi D. ↓, Alasgarov N. ↑,
79', Hacyly H. ↓, Mutsinzi A. ↑,
80', Aliyev Q. 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Kady Borges ⚽,
85', Papunashvili G. ↓, Mickels L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qarabağ won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Qarabağ is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Qarabağ won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 38:13. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Qarabağ won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:7. (average 1.5:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
31.08.25	Karvan - Qarabağ Agdam	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.08.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Ferencvárosi	2:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.08.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Sumgayit	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.08.25	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3 ✺
12.08.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Shkendija Tetovo	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLLWW
- Zira FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.08.25	Zira - Kapaz	5:0 ✺
25.08.25	Gabala - Zira	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Zira - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Hajduk Split - Zira	2:1 ET ✺
23.07.25	Zira - Hajduk Split	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
06.04.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Zira	1:0
02.02.25	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2
10.11.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Zira	4:0
01.09.24	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3
Azerbaijan Cup
02.06.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Zira	2:1
Azerbaijan Premier League
11.05.24	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1
10.03.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Zira	3:1

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