Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 14

Date: 12 January 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Régua		Machico

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.45
	2.55	3.25	2.5
	2.6	3.25	2.45
	2.5	3.24	2.5
	2.55	3.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (3.26)	3.22 ↑ (3.08)	2.48 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Régua
35.5%

Draw
28.1%

Machico
36.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.8%

29.5%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

29.3%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Régua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Régua's performance.

Machico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Machico might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Régua than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Régua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machico than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Machico could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Régua - Machico Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Régua is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Machico is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Régua could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Régua won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Régua
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.01.25	Régua - Guarda FC	1:0 ✺
15.12.24	Salgueiros 08 - Régua	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Régua - União Lamas	2:2 ✺
30.11.24	Gondomar - Régua	1:0 ✺
17.11.24	Machico - Régua	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLTLL
- AD Machico
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
22.12.24	Leça - Machico	1:2 ✺
15.12.24	Machico - Beira-Mar	3:1 ✺
08.12.24	Alpendorada - Machico	2:0 ✺
30.11.24	Guarda FC - Machico	3:0 ✺
17.11.24	Machico - Régua	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
17.11.24	Machico - Régua	4:0

Régua - Machico