Match Info

Challenger Pro League - Round 9

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de Rocourt (Liège)

Referee: Van De Velde D. (Bel)


	RFC Liège		Genk U23

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	4.75	Watch
	1.55	3.9	4.5
	1.55	4.35	4.85
	1.52	4.71	5.32
	1.22	6.93	9.37	Watch
	1.56	4.53	4.79	Watch
	1.58	4.25	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.57)	4.74 ↑ (4.27)	5.48 ↑ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RFC Liège
62.8%

Draw
19.9%

Genk U23
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

21.7%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

21.1%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RFC Liège has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Genk U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RFC Liège than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk U23 than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

RFC Liège - Genk U23 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Belin J. (G) 2. Wasinski M. 16. N'jo E. 4. Bustin J. 25. D'Ostilio J. (C) 28. Wilmots R. 10. Hazard K. 8. Sarmiento D. 24. De Sart A. 11. Lefebvre A. 9. Diouf O.	71. Stevens B. (G) 2. Pierre K. 56. De Wannemacker A. (C) 73. Mbavu E. 85. Kang Min-Woo 87. Yasuda K. 86. Haroun K. 60. Lazar S. E. 50. Beniangba V. 84. Sarfo E. 23. Bibout A.
Substitutes
1. Andre A. (G) 15. Arslan A. 17. Da Silva F. 20. Gobitaka F. 13. Mouchamps D. 18. Paulet S. 23. Reynaerts S. 6. Shkurti K. 19. Soelle F.	65. Akpan C. 67. Camara A. 66. Coenen J. 52. Da Costa W. 74. Fernandez L. 53. Mocsnik M. 11. Oyen L. 61. Van Laere D. (G) 63. Zion H.
Coaches
Englebert G.	Van Rumst J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Diouf O. ⚽,
41', 2 - 0, De Sart A. ⚽,
43', Wilmots R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Lazar S. E. ↓, Oyen L. ↑,
59', 3 - 0, Lefebvre A. ⚽, Diouf O. (A),
67', Bibout A. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
67', Haroun K. ↓, Coenen J. ↑,
67', Sarfo E. ↓, Akpan C. ↑,
67', Beniangba V. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
71', Lefebvre A. ↓, Paulet S. ↑,
71', Sarmiento D. ↓, Gobitaka F. ↑,
71', Hazard K. ↓, Soelle F. ↑,
80', 4 - 0, Soelle F. ⚽, N'jo E. (A),
81', De Sart A. ↓, Shkurti K. ↑,
81', Diouf O. ↓, Da Silva F. ↑,
83', Akpan C. 🟨,
86', Akpan C. 🟨,
87', 5 - 0, Paulet S. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Promotion: ) and 13).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

RFC Liège may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, RFC Liège is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, RFC Liège won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, RFC Liège won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 4:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RFC Liège
Belgian Challenger Pro League
28.09.25	Lommel - RFC Liège	0:1 ✺
24.09.25	RFC Liège - Beveren	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	RFC Liège - Anderlecht U23	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Brugge U23 - RFC Liège	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	RFC Liège - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWL
- Genk U23
Belgian Challenger Pro League
26.09.25	Genk U23 - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	1:4 ✺
23.09.25	Genk U23 - Beerschot Wilrijk	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	Lommel - Genk U23	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Genk U23 - Kortrijk	1:3 ✺
31.08.25	Brugge U23 - Genk U23	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Challenger Pro League
13.04.25	RFC Liège - Genk U23	3:1
25.08.24	Genk U23 - RFC Liège	4:1
19.04.24	RFC Liège - Genk U23	5:0
03.11.23	Genk U23 - RFC Liège	2:3

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