Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Racing Montevideo		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.00	2.00	Watch
	3.40	3.10	2.05
	3.35	3.00	2.10
	4.04	3.10	2.19
	3.71	3.05	2.15	Watch
	3.95	2.85	2.13
	3.67	3.38	2.09	Watch
	3.55	3.15	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.25)	3.08 ↑ (3.03)	2.1 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
25.5%

Draw
30.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

29.7%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

29.2%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Varese F. (G) 3. Brazionis 4. Cotugno G. 13. Alvarez F. 17. Ferreira M. 5. Bosca J. 34. Agustin De la Cuesta 37. Oyarzo Y. 39. Vazquez A. 9. Da Silva S. 10. Da Silva E.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Pezzella G. 6. Ferreira L. 34. Herrera N. 26. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 5. Remedi E. 21. Jesus Trindade 7. Cabrera J. 11. Jaime C. 32. Umpierrez L. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
20. Bentancor E. 22. Fernandez T. 30. Gadea R. 29. Gonzalez F. 33. Guarino J. 8. Loprete L. 1. Machado F. (G) 21. Sosa N. 11. Suarez F. 27. Unyicio M.	28. Alegre I. 36. Barboza B. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 8. Fernandez N. 80. Gonzalez F. 3. Lemos M. 27. Lucas Hernandez 16. Olase T. 33. Rodriguez J.
Coaches
Chambian C.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Vazquez A. 🟨,
28', Jesus Trindade 🟨,
29', Ferreira L. 🟨,
29', Da Silva S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ferreira M. 🟨,
53', Herrera N. 🟨,
63', Vazquez A. ↓, Suarez F. ↑,
63', Da Silva E. ↓, Gadea R. ↑,
69', Herrera N. ↓, Lemos M. ↑,
69', Jesus Trindade ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
74', Pezzella G. 🟨,
77', Brazionis ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
81', Remedi E. 🟨,
85', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
88', Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
88', Jaime C. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Arezo M. ⚽,
90+2', Arezo M. ↓, Olase T. ↑,
90+3', Oyarzo Y. ↓, Guarino J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Racing (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Peñarol is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Racing could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Peñarol holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Racing has recorded 2 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:39 (averaging 1.1:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Racing against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with 11:25 goals (averaging 1.1:2.5 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Racing Montevideo - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 27.67%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.09.26	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
17.09.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Racing Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.09.26	Racing Montevideo - Boston River	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Racing Montevideo - Central Español	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLWL
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
12.07.26	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
29.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:2
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
19.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.08.25	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:4
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2
30.09.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0
16.06.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:1

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