Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Progreso		Racing Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.1	1.83	Watch
	3.60	3.20	1.95
	3.65	3.2	1.95
	4.05	3.38	2.02
	3.84	3.36	1.98	Watch
	3.8	3.3	1.98
	3.75	3.14	1.92	Watch
	3.7	3.3	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↑ (3.7)	3.25 ↓ (3.38)	1.95 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
24.4%

Draw
28.4%

Racing Montevideo
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

27.6%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

26.6%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Progreso - Racing Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bacchia R. (G) 3. Garcia F. 15. Martin M. 6. Saravia M. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. (C) 25. Cristobal R. 16. Trasante G. 10. Lopez N. 7. Ocampo A. 8. Juambeltz M.	12. Varese F. (G) 4. Cotugno G. (C) 3. Brazionis 13. Alvarez F. 29. Gonzalez F. 34. Agustin De la Cuesta 39. Vazquez A. 37. Oyarzo Y. 10. Da Silva E. 9. Da Silva S. 81. Manzur I.
Substitutes
11. Acosta N. 24. Alvarez E. 13. Carroso H. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 4. Couture L. 17. De Leon F. 9. Dos Santos J. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 27. Silva G.	20. Bentancor E. 5. Bosca J. 22. Fernandez T. 17. Ferreira M. 30. Gadea R. 8. Loprete L. 1. Machado F. (G) 23. Sosa N. 11. Suarez F. 27. Unyicio M.
Coaches
Silva T.	Chambian C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Juambeltz M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gonzalez F. ↓, Bosca J. ↑,
46', Da Silva S. ↓, Suarez F. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Da Silva E. ⚽,
63', Ocampo A. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
63', Trasante G. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
67', Manzur I. 🟨,
73', Cougo A. 🟨,
74', Manzur I. 🟨,
74', Garcia F. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
75', Brazionis ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
75', Vazquez A. ↓, Gadea R. ↑,
78', Cougo A. ↓, Carroso H. ↑,
78', Cristobal R. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
81', Da Silva E. ↓, Sosa N. ↑,
83', Agustin De la Cuesta 🟨,
90', Alvarez E. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Lopez N. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 10th and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 0.

In recent outings, Progreso has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Racing has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Racing holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Progreso has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:23 (averaging 0.9:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Progreso against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 12:9 goals (averaging 1.7:1.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 25.23%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Racing Montevideo - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.15%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Boston River - Progreso	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Progreso - Cerro	1:3 ✺
07.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLLWL
- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
17.09.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Racing Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.09.26	Racing Montevideo - Boston River	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Racing Montevideo - Central Español	2:4 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
26.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:1
29.09.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	0:0
22.06.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	3:0
30.03.25	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	0:1
21.09.24	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:0
07.07.24	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	3:2
10.03.24	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	4:3

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