Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 31

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday


	Real Calepina		Breno

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.1	3.35
	1.82	3.38	3.75
	2.1	3.15	3.34	Watch
	1.91	3	3.6
	2.03	3.54	3.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.85)	3.23 ↓ (3.36)	3.49 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Calepina
45.9%

Draw
28.1%

Breno
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

26.8%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

26.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Calepina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Breno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Calepina than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Breno than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Real Calepina - Breno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Lugnan G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', 1 - 1, Bigolin C. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Calepina won 1.

In recent matches, Real Calepina has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Breno's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Breno may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Calepina is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Real Calepina won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Calepina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Real Calepina	6	2	2	2	11:9	2	8

Last Results with these Odds

Breno - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 24.37%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Calepina
Italian Serie D - Group B
08.04.26	Real Calepina - Milan Futuro	1:0 ✺
02.04.26	Oltrepo - Real Calepina	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Caldiero Terme - Real Calepina	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Real Calepina - Chievo	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Real Calepina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLLWW
- Breno Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
02.04.26	Breno - Sondrio	1:0 penalties ✺
29.03.26	Oltrepo - Breno	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Breno - Folgore Caratese	0:3 ✺
15.03.26	Breno - Caldiero Terme	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Scanzorosciate - Breno	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
30.11.25	Breno - Real Calepina	2:1
08.01.23	Real Calepina - Breno	1:1
04.09.22	Breno - Real Calepina	1:1
23.04.22	Breno - Real Calepina	1:2
08.12.21	Real Calepina - Breno	0:1
18.04.21	Real Calepina - Breno	1:0
10.02.21	Breno - Real Calepina	0:0

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