Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 8

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Latvia	16:00	Futbols TV


	Riga Mariners		Valmiera

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.75	2.08	Watch
	2.73	3.90	2.13	Watch
	2.83	3.9	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.78)	3.85 ↑ (3.83)	2.1 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riga Mariners
33%

Draw
23.6%

Valmiera
43.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.7%

23.7%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

23.3%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riga Mariners has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Valmiera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga Mariners than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valmiera than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Riga Mariners - Valmiera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Lopes G. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 1 - 1, Pavlovskis A. ⚽,
68', 2 - 1, Owusu R. ⚽,
74', 3 - 1, Grazis A. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Virsliga).

Riga Mariners is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Valmiera is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Valmiera might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Riga Mariners won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3.

Including home match between the teams, Riga Mariners won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Valmiera	24	17	5	2	66:26	40	56
4	Riga Mariners	24	16	5	3	60:31	29	53

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riga Mariners
Latvian 1 Liga
09.05.26	Riga Mariners - Smiltene	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Rēzekne - Riga Mariners	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Rīgas FS 2 - Riga Mariners	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Riga Mariners - Riga 2	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tukums 2000 2 - Riga Mariners	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTWTW
- Valmiera FK
Latvian 1 Liga
09.05.26	Valmiera - JDFS Alberts	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Metta - Valmiera	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Valmiera - Rēzekne	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Mārupe - Valmiera	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Valmiera - Smiltene	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Cup
22.06.25	Riga Mariners - Valmiera	4:3 ET

Riga Mariners - Valmiera