Match Info

Serie A Women - Round 3

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Tre Fontane (Rome) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Liotta A. (Ita)


	Roma		Milan

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.20	6.25
	1.37	4.30	6.10	Watch
	1.47	4.59	5.95
	1.45	4.66	6.1	Watch
	1.43	4.50	5.85
	1.47	4.49	5.96	Watch
	1.39	4.50	6.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.4)	4.46 ↓ (4.68)	6.06 ↓ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
64.3%

Draw
20.5%

Milan
15.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.3%

19.8%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

18.9%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Roma - Milan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Baldi R. (G) 23. Bergamaschi V. 5. Antoine M. 19. Oladipo S. 12. Ottey E. 6. Doms M. 29. Rieke A. 20. Greggi G. 10. Giugliano M. (C) 18. Piemonte M. 14. Pellegrino G.	1. Estevez S. (G) 21. Keijzer M. 6. Sorelli N. 20. Soffia A. 47. Nevado N. 14. Park Soo-Jeong 12. Mascarello M. 11. Grimshaw C. (C) 7. Kyvag T. 9. Fornes S. 15. Stokic S.
Substitutes
30. Babajide R. 16. Corelli A. 4. Heatley W. 7. Jahnukainen S. 13. Oliviero E. 22. Pandini M. 78. Piekarska M. 11. Pilgrim A. 36. Soggiu V. (G) 25. Thogersen F. 8. van Dooren K. 32. Vergani B.	19. Arboleda D. 33. Bonanomi E. 32. Brighton A. 25. De Sanders K. 2. Koivisto E. 23. Piga J. 24. Rainey S. (G) 17. Sesay M. 35. Taddei P. 22. Tornaghi L. (G) 38. Vitale E.
Coaches
Piovani G.	Bakker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 1 - 0, Pellegrino G. ⚽, Giugliano M. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Grimshaw C. (Penalty Awarded),
29', 1 - 2, Grimshaw C. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Bergamaschi V. ↓, Thogersen F. ↑,
46', Doms M. ↓, Pilgrim A. ↑,
47', 2 - 2, Pellegrino G. ⚽,
60', Park Soo-Jeong 🟨,
61', Fornes S. ↓, Sesay M. ↑,
66', 3 - 2, Giugliano M. ⚽,
67', Piemonte M. ↓, Corelli A. ↑,
70', Keijzer M. ↓, Koivisto E. ↑,
70', Mascarello M. ↓, Brighton A. ↑,
76', Pellegrino G. ↓, Oliviero E. ↑,
80', Sorelli N. ↓, Piga J. ↑,
86', Rieke A. 🟨,
90+6', 4 - 2, Greggi G. ⚽, Corelli A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Milan may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The betting markets point to Roma as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Roma has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:25 (averaging 2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Roma against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 24:12 goals (averaging 2.2:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma W	4	4	0	0	15:6	9	12
5	AC Milan W	4	2	0	2	8:9	-1	6

Outrights of Italian Serie A Women for now

AS Roma W: 46.59% AC Milan W: 2.05%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma Women
Italian Serie A Women
03.10.26	Roma - Lazio	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
30.09.26	Roma - Barcelona	0:6 ✺
Italian Serie A Women
27.09.26	Sassuolo - Roma	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
23.09.26	Leuven - Roma	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A Cup Women
19.09.26	Juventus - Roma	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLWTL
- AC Milan Women
Italian Serie A Women
04.10.26	Milan - Juventus	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Calcio Como - Milan	4:1 ✺
Italian Serie A Cup Women
06.09.26	Juventus - Milan	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Milan - Calcio Como	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Milan - Como	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A Women
08.02.26	Roma - Milan	1:0
12.10.25	Milan - Roma	1:2
Italian Serie A Cup Women
06.09.25	Roma - Milan	1:0
Italian Serie A Women
04.05.25	Roma - Milan	3:3
22.03.25	Milan - Roma	3:1
25.01.25	Milan - Roma	3:2
20.10.24	Roma - Milan	2:1

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